According to online betting platform Polymarket, the likelihood of former President Donald Trump dropping his running mate, JD Vance, before the November election seems slim. Polymarket is currently offering a 12 percent chance that the Ohio senator will be replaced as the GOP's vice presidential nominee.

JD Vance was confirmed as Trump's running mate at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee on July 17. However, since then, he has faced ongoing scrutiny for his past comments on women, abortion, and individuals without children. CNN's senior political data reporter, Harry Enten, has noted that Vance is "historically unpopular" as a running mate, with his average -6 net favorable polling ratings being the lowest recorded for a vice presidential nominee since 1980.

Despite speculations and suggestions that Trump is considering replacing Vance, his campaign has repeatedly dismissed such claims, stating that he is "thrilled" with his choice of running mate. It is worth noting that there are no rules in place to forcibly remove a vice-presidential candidate from the GOP ticket, meaning Vance would have to voluntarily step aside.

While President Joe Biden ended his 2024 campaign and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris before officially becoming the Democratic Party's 2024 nominee, the Republican National Committee has a rule that allows them to replace their confirmed vice-presidential nominee in the event of "death, declination, or otherwise." This would require reconvening the convention or allowing a smaller group of Republican National Committee members to decide on the replacement.

Amy Dacey, former CEO of the Democratic National Committee, believes that the timing of the campaign makes it unlikely for Vance to be replaced at this late stage. She explained that people start voting in September, making it crucial for the nominees to appear on the ballot in each state.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has suggested that Trump could replace Vance within "about 10 days" before the deadline to appear on the Ohio ballot expires. Schumer expressed his skepticism about Vance's selection, criticizing his erratic behavior and extreme views. In response, Trump's communications director, Steven Cheung, stated that the former president is pleased with his choice and believes that he and Vance are the perfect team to reclaim the White House.

While replacing a running mate is not unprecedented for a presidential candidate, the chances of Trump replacing JD Vance seem slim according to Polymarket's betting odds. As the election draws closer, voters and political observers will keep a close eye on the Republican ticket.