Arizona House Speaker Ben Toma (R) finds himself in a challenging situation as he wrestles with the aftermath of the Arizona Supreme Court's decision to uphold an 1864 abortion ban. Despite pressure from national Republicans, including former President Trump and Kari Lake, Toma has twice thwarted House Democrats' attempts to repeal the ban on procedural grounds. However, Toma must also contend with running for Congress in a crowded Republican primary, where compromising on a less restrictive abortion ban may not be well-received.

The decision to uphold the century-old ban has highlighted the complexities surrounding the abortion issue for both Republicans and Democrats nationwide. Toma, a staunch opponent of abortion, previously defended the 1864 law in an amicus brief to the state Supreme Court. However, the political reality is challenging his deeply held beliefs, as there seems to be no safe position for Republicans when it comes to abortion.

The backlash against the territorial ban could potentially shake conservative majorities in the state and impact Trump's campaign in Arizona, a crucial swing state. Despite the mounting pressure, Toma has successfully blocked attempts to consider repealing the 1864 law in the state House. In the most recent attempt, only one Republican joined House Democrats in supporting the repeal.

On the state Senate side, two Republicans joined Democrats in waiving the rules to allow legislation that would repeal the law to proceed. Toma voiced skepticism about the repeal effort, implying that it would not gain traction in the lower chamber. However, State Rep. David Cook (R) believes there are enough Republicans in the House who would support a repeal bill.

While Toma's opposition to repealing the 1864 law may benefit him in a Republican-leaning congressional primary, it could jeopardize the GOP majority in the state. Both chambers of the Arizona Legislature currently hold a one-seat Republican majority.

Republican strategists familiar with Toma predict that he will continue to oppose the repeal, as long as he does not face significant opposition from fellow Republicans. On the other hand, GOP consultant Stan Barnes suggests that anti-abortion legislators may need to compromise in order to achieve some form of abortion restrictions.

In the midst of this dilemma, leaked information reveals that Republican state lawmakers are considering offering a counter referendum to the Democrats' expected ballot measure, which aims to enshrine abortion protections into the state constitution. Republicans are reportedly making progress on a potential path forward, including a referendum that would ban abortions after 15 weeks, with exceptions for cases of rape, incest, and to save the mother's life.

The abortion debate in Arizona continues to escalate, with both politicians and voters grappling with the nuanced and divisive issue. As the political landscape shifts, Toma's stance on the 1864 ban and the ultimate fate of abortion rights in the state hang in the balance.