### U.S. Authorization of Deeper Ukrainian Strikes Unlikely to Trigger Nuclear Response

WASHINGTON/NEW YORK – Despite the U.S. recently permitting Ukraine to use American weaponry to target deeper into Russian territory, the risk of nuclear escalation remains low, according to five U.S. intelligence sources. These insights come in the face of increasingly aggressive rhetoric from Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Over the past seven months, various intelligence evaluations consistently concluded that allowing Ukraine to deploy U.S. weapons, such as the ATACMs with a range of up to 190 miles (306 kilometers), would not provoke a nuclear response from Moscow. These conclusions have been reiterated even after President Joe Biden's decision to ease restrictions on Ukraine's use of these weapons.

While Russia launched a new ballistic missile last week—an action seen by analysts as a message to Washington and European allies—this has not altered the U.S. intelligence community's assessment. According to one U.S. official, although Russia is unlikely to escalate with nuclear forces, it may attempt to match the alleged U.S. escalation by other means.

Amid this strategic landscape, there are indications that Russia might intensify its sabotage efforts against European entities, aiming to pressure the West to reduce support for Kyiv. Two senior officials, a lawmaker, and two congressional aides, who were briefed on the situation, expressed these concerns.

The Biden administration has faced internal debates regarding the potential risks associated with loosening restrictions on Ukraine's use of American weapons. Concerns previously centered around lethal retaliation against U.S. military and diplomatic personnel, possible NATO ally attacks, and nuclear escalation.

Although some officials initially perceived the escalation risks as significant, recent intelligence has dispelled many of these fears. Nonetheless, the broader situation remains perilous, and the threat of nuclear escalation cannot be entirely dismissed. Experts like Angela Stent from Georgetown University emphasize the continued risk of hybrid threats, including sabotage by Russia.

Following a surprise incursion by Ukraine into Russia's Kursk region in August, the conflict between Moscow and Kyiv has seen a cycle of escalating actions. Moreover, Russia's engagement of between 11,000 and 12,000 North Korean soldiers to support its war effort further complicates the scenario.

In response to escalating tensions, Russia adjusted its nuclear doctrine, reducing the threshold for a nuclear strike. Though the probability of nuclear action was high towards the end of 2022, as noted by CIA Director William Burns, Russia has so far refrained from such measures.

Despite these tensions, the U.S. has continued to support Ukraine with substantial military aid. The assessments indicate that while nuclear threats are often leveraged by Putin, they are considered a last resort, with sabotage and cyber-attacks being more immediate tactics.

Inside the administration, there's been ongoing debate about the potential risks of authorizing Ukraine to strike within Russia, focusing particularly on the potential for unprecedented danger and retaliation, possibly against U.S. military bases. This contentious issue underscores the complex considerations at play in U.S. support for Ukraine amidst ongoing conflict.