**Trump Allies Argue Immigration Reduction Could Boost American Wages, Analysts Disagree**

As the contours of President-elect Donald J. Trump's second term come into view, it is becoming evident that one of his key campaign promises involves extensive deportations of undocumented immigrants. These plans include establishing new detention centers, conducting workplace raids, and potentially even deploying the military to assist with the expulsions.

While the Trump administration often frames this issue in terms of crime prevention or legal compliance rather than economic impact, there is an emerging narrative among his supporters that limiting immigration could be financially beneficial to American workers. This intellectual movement, prominently supported by Vice President-elect JD Vance, proposes that by cutting off the supply of vulnerable, undocumented laborers, employers will be compelled to turn to U.S.-born workers.

"We cannot have an entire American business community that is giving up on American workers and then importing millions of illegal laborers," Vance stated in an interview with The New York Times in October. He argued that this practice contributes significantly to the millions of Americans who have left the labor force.

Vance's viewpoint holds some merit, particularly as data shows a decline in the labor force participation rate of men in their prime working years. This rate has not completely bounced back since it dropped during economic recessions. Conversely, women within the same age group, 25 to 54 years old, are participating in the labor force at record levels.

The argument rests on a seemingly straightforward principle: with fewer workers available, employers must offer better wages and conditions to attract employees. This notion was somewhat supported during the early stages of the pandemic when a scarcity of willing in-person workers, such as waiters and nurses, led to rapid wage increases. However, numerous studies question the overall validity of this claim, casting doubt on whether restricting immigration will genuinely enhance job opportunities for American workers.

This ongoing debate highlights the complex and multifaceted nature of immigration policy and its impacts on the national labor market.