In a detailed Zoom briefing conducted by Brett McGurk, the National Security Council's top Middle East official, the White House indicated that it lacks clarity on when Israel plans to transition to a less-intense phase in its retaliation against Hamas. The senior administration official admitted that the war could potentially extend into the year 2024. The briefing, held on Thursday, provided insight into the Biden administration's perspective on the ongoing conflict, with McGurk sharing both known and unknown information.

Although there have been encouraging signs, such as the announced withdrawal of five brigades from Gaza by Israel, the precise timing of the de-escalation remains uncertain. The administration, while publicly expressing confidence and privately urging Israel, seems to have little visibility into when this shift will occur.

McGurk, referring to conversations with Israeli officials, acknowledged that the conflict could continue for several more months or even until the end of the year. This extended duration raises concerns about the potential for the war to spread beyond its borders, potentially drawing the United States into a broader regional conflict. It is worthy to note that the U.S. military is already on high alert and closely monitoring developments in the region.

During the briefing, there was also a discussion about the eventual return of Palestinians to their homes in northern Gaza, an area severely impacted by Israel's prolonged bombing campaign. McGurk mentioned the dismantling of Hamas in that region, echoing statements made by Israeli officials. The United States is discussing the possibility of creating a Palestinian security force to aid in the process of reestablishing normalcy, although this would require considerable time and resources.

Despite having collected intelligence on Israel's war conduct, the briefing highlighted that the U.S. is less aware of Israel's intentions than it publicly admits. McGurk's comments emphasized that the administration lacks concrete information about the tactical changes Israel plans to make.

In response to the ongoing conflict, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant outlined plans for a scaled-down "new combat approach" in northern Gaza. Once the fighting subsides, Israeli forces are expected to maintain security in the region, with a Palestinian entity administering the enclave. However, specific details regarding this phase were not provided by Gallant.

As the situation remains volatile, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken embarks on a Middle East visit, starting from Friday. This diplomatic mission is his fourth regional stop since the attacks began on October 7th. The primary objective of Blinken's visit is to prevent the further escalation and deepening of violence across the Middle East. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller emphasized that the discussions during the trip would focus on specific steps and how regional parties can utilize their influence to avoid further escalation.

The lack of clarity regarding Israel's intentions and the potential for an extended conflict underscores the urgent need to address the humanitarian crisis and find sustainable solutions for the displaced Palestinians in northern Gaza. While the Biden administration continues to navigate the complexities of the situation, the hope remains for a swift de-escalation and a lasting peace in the region.