In a recent development, the United States has obtained intelligence suggesting that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has agreed to supply the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah with a Russian-made missile defense system. The information comes from two individuals familiar with the intelligence.

According to the sources, the delivery of the surface-to-air SA-22 missile system, also known as a Pantsir, has been entrusted to the Russian mercenary organization, Wagner Group, which operates in Syria. It remains uncertain whether the system has already been delivered or is still pending. These sources have stated that the system was originally provided by Russia to the Syrian government.

US authorities have been closely monitoring the recent movement of the missile defense system, indicating the seriousness of the situation. The assessment made by US intelligence is partially based on information obtained regarding discussions among Assad, Wagner, and Hezbollah on the delivery of the system.

Previous reports from The Wall Street Journal have suggested the possibility of Wagner providing the missile system to Hezbollah. However, it was not known until now that Assad played a key role in this arrangement.

Wagner Group and Hezbollah fighters have long been present in Syria, where they have collaborated with Russian and Syrian armed forces to support the Assad regime against the Syrian opposition. Although Hezbollah has begun withdrawing its fighters in recent years, the group's association with Iran, a close ally of Assad, still holds.

Western intelligence sources have also noted an increase in collaboration between Hezbollah and Wagner in Syria, further fueling concerns about Hezbollah obtaining an advanced air defense system.

This development comes at a time when fears are mounting about the possibility of Hezbollah opening a new front in Israel's conflict with Hamas, specifically on Israel's northern border with Lebanon. In response, the US has repeatedly warned Hezbollah and other Iran-backed groups to refrain from becoming entangled in the conflict and has deployed troops and aircraft carriers in the region as a deterrent.

Israel had previously targeted similar missile systems in Syria as part of broader attacks on Iranian military sites within the country.

The extent of Russia's influence over the decision to provide the missile system to Hezbollah remains uncertain. Despite attempts by the Kremlin to absorb Wagner mercenaries and the group's assets following the death of Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin in August, the US has not observed any decisive shift indicating complete ownership by the Russian government, as reported by CNN in late September.

For now, the US intelligence community believes that Iran and its proxies, including Hezbollah, are carefully calculating their response to Israel's military intervention in Gaza to avoid direct conflict with Israel or the US. However, concerns persist regarding Hezbollah's potential escalation due to internal politics within the group.

Intelligence officials will be attentively monitoring a significant speech scheduled for Friday by Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in hopes of gaining insight into the group's intentions and further clarifying the situation.