US Core Inflation Slows in December, Reflecting Fed's Tight Monetary Policy

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ICARO Media Group
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26/01/2024 19h46

Inflation in the United States eased in December, with the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) measure rising at an annual rate of 2.9%. This marked a decline from November's 3.2% and came in below the consensus forecast of 3.0%.

The latest data suggests that the Federal Reserve's tight monetary policy is continuing to have an impact on the economy, effectively curbing demand and pushing down inflation. Core inflation is estimated to be running at an annual pace of under 2%, according to Renaissance Macro Research.

Over the past three months, core PCE has advanced at an annual rate of only 1.52%, while over the last six months, it has climbed just 1.86%, as stated by the firm. These figures indicate a significant slowdown in inflation compared to previous periods.

On a month-over-month basis, the core PCE index, which excludes volatile food and energy sectors, increased by 0.2%, surpassing expectations of a 0.2% rise. Including food and energy, the headline PCE Price Index also rose by 0.2%.

Breaking down the numbers further, prices for goods declined by 0.2% month-over-month, while prices for services rose by 0.3%. Food prices saw a modest increase of 0.1%, and energy prices went up by 0.3%.

Despite the mild inflationary pressure, consumer spending in the US displayed resilience. Personal spending grew by 0.7% month-over-month, outpacing the 0.4% consensus forecast. However, personal income only increased by 0.3%, in line with expectations.

The personal saving rate declined to 3.7% in December from 4.1% the previous month, illustrating that consumers were dipping into their savings to support their spending habits. Notably, the personal saving rate had reached a high of 5.3% in May 2023.

In response to the data, S&P futures remained relatively flat, while Nasdaq futures slipped by 0.3% and Dow futures edged down 0.1% before the market opened. The US 10-year Treasury yield initially spiked to 4.15% after the report's release but subsequently settled around 4.12%.

The latest figures reflect the ongoing impact of the Federal Reserve's tight monetary policy on the US economy. As inflationary pressures display signs of moderation and consumer spending remains resilient, all eyes will be on the central bank's next move in order to maintain a balance between economic growth and price stability.

The views expressed in this article do not reflect the opinion of ICARO, or any of its affiliates.

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