Ukrainian Troops Gain Foothold on Eastern Bank of Dnipro River, Pressuring Russian Forces in New Front
ICARO Media Group
This successful landing across the river has the potential to divert Russian attention from the southeastern Zaporizhizhia region and put pressure on their control of the occupied Crimea.
The Ukrainian counteroffensive, launched in June, initially raised hopes of a breakthrough, but the conflict has since devolved into a brutal battle of attrition, with neither side making substantial headway. As winter approaches, it is unlikely that the next few months will witness any surprising maneuvers along the 600-mile front in eastern Ukraine.
However, Ukraine's recent progress in the Kherson region is seen as a promising strategic move, connecting to the valuable stronghold of Russian-occupied Crimea. While experts acknowledge that Ukraine still faces a challenging task against the larger Russian army, they believe that Ukraine maintains a tactical advantage.
David Silbey, a professor of military history and policy at Cornell University, noted that Ukraine has a slight upper hand, but the overall situation remains a stalemate. He likened the recent months' fighting to the grinding matches of World War I, where progress is measured in yards rather than miles, resulting in significant casualties.
The Ukrainian advance in Kherson has raised concerns among Russian military observers as Ukraine secures a bridgehead in a neighboring village. Despite the relative stabilization of the situation, Russian forces are not giving up their plans to expand the bridgehead on the left bank of the Dnipro. The Ukrainian command has expressed its intention to continue offensive operations in the occupied territories.
Most of Ukraine's counteroffensive has been concentrated around the Zaporizhzhia region, targeting the town of Tokmak and the destroyed city of Bakhmut in Donetsk. While the offensive is expected to continue through the winter, it may be on a more limited scale.
Simultaneously, Russian forces are also continuing their offensives against Ukraine, particularly aiming to seize Luhansk in the northeast and the eastern Donetsk region. One major focus is the town of Avdiivka in Donetsk, where Russian forces launched a renewed offensive in recent weeks but reportedly suffered heavy losses, similar to the assault on Bakhmut earlier this year.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized the importance of defending Avdiivka to his military's objectives, stating that Russia is already experiencing significant losses and equipment failures near the town. He acknowledged the immense difficulty in withstanding the Russian onslaught.
This week, Russian forces have reportedly made incremental advances north of Avdiivka, specifically targeting a coke plant considered strategic for Ukrainian defenders. However, the UK Defense Ministry's intelligence update suggests that Russian forces are facing difficulties in seizing outlying areas and would suffer significant personnel losses if they attempt to assault the plant.
As Ukraine prepares for the harsh winter, the notorious muddy season is coming to a close, which may marginally slow down the tempo of the fighting. However, the re-frozen ground also provides new opportunities for ground vehicles to advance.
Despite the recent developments, Ukraine's top general has publically acknowledged that a breakthrough in the counteroffensive is not expected in the near future. Additionally, the upcoming U.S. primary elections in January may complicate the politics of Ukraine's support from its most important backer.
Michael O'Hanlon, director of research in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution, highlighted the advantage Russia possesses with its larger population and ability to sustain casualties over a long period. He expressed concerns that time is not on Ukraine's side, as Russia appears willing to wait it out, while the possibility of a new U.S. president could potentially alter the situation.
The conflict in eastern Ukraine remains entrenched in a stalemate, with no perceptible momentum on either side, according to O'Hanlon. While there is more potential for events to favor Russia in the coming months, Ukraine continues to struggle to gain momentum, both in politics and military terms.