In a recent statement, Wu Shicun, president of the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, warned that tensions between China and the Philippines are set to further escalate and may reach a "point of no return." Wu attributed this escalation to the increased involvement of the United States in the South China Sea, particularly under the current pro-U.S. administration in Manila.

The source of the simmering tensions lies in the long-running territorial dispute over the energy-rich waters in the South China Sea. China has been asserting its sovereignty over islands, reefs, and maritime zones that fall within the Philippines' internationally recognized exclusive economic zone, leading to repeated standoffs and blockades at contested features such as the Manila-controlled Second Thomas Shoal and the Spratly Islands archipelago.

According to Wu Shicun's remarks at a forum hosted by the Chinese state-backed Global Times newspaper, the militarization of the South China Sea led by the United States will intensify in the coming years. The academic pointed to a series of American military activities as evidence of this trend, including the granting of U.S. troops access to four additional Philippine bases, port calls at Vietnam's Cam Ranh Bay, and numerous military operations conducted by the U.S. in the region.

Wu also highlighted the multilateral security arrangements between the Philippines, the U.S., Japan, and Australia, which he claimed were specifically targeting China. He further pointed out that the joint statement issued during the Camp David summit in August by U.S. President Joe Biden, Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio, and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol condemned China's "dangerous and aggressive behavior supporting unlawful maritime claims" in the South China Sea.

China's top diplomat, Wang Yi, cautioned the Philippines to "act with caution" and accused them of involving extra-regional powers in the bilateral dispute. The Chinese Foreign Ministry, echoing Wang's sentiment, warned the Philippines to "stop pursuing the wrong course."

While the National Institute for South China Sea Studies and the Chinese Foreign Ministry did not immediately respond to Newsweek's requests for comment, Greg Poling, director of the Southeast Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank, supported the notion that U.S. ambitions in the region were driving the Philippines' pushback against China. Poling argued that China viewed smaller states as tools of great power competition and had refused to negotiate on the South China Sea dispute in good faith for three decades.

The tensions between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea remain a crucial geopolitical issue. As both countries continue to assert their claims, the influence of the United States and its allies in the region adds further complexity to an already volatile situation. The repercussions of these escalating tensions could have significant implications for regional stability and international relations in the coming years.