In a recent series of statewide surveys conducted by Emerson College Polling, President Joe Biden is found trailing former President Donald Trump in several key swing states ahead of the 2024 election. The polls, which included a sample of 1,000 voters in each state, revealed that Biden is lagging behind Trump in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Wisconsin, while maintaining a lead in Michigan.

Among registered voters, Trump holds a four-point lead over Biden, with 45% of support compared to Biden's 41%. However, when focusing on likely voters, Trump's lead narrows to three points, with 47% in favor of the former president and 44% in favor of Biden. A small percentage of voters remain undecided, making up 14% among registered voters and 9% among likely voters.

Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, highlighted the generational divide in support for the two candidates. Biden is underperforming his 2020 support among voters under 30, while Trump has solidified his backing among middle-aged voters. According to the polls, likely voters under 30 favor Biden by eight points, with 47% supporting him compared to 39% for Trump. On the other hand, voters aged 50-64 strongly support Trump by a 13-point margin, with 52% in his favor and 39% for Biden. Likely voters over 65 are evenly split between the two candidates, with each receiving 46% of support.

The survey also delved into the reasons behind voter support for each candidate. Among likely voters, approximately 29% stated that they support their chosen candidate because they dislike the other candidate, while 24% cited liking their preferred candidate as the reason. Another 21% expressed a preference based on specific issues, and 15% supported their party's candidate.

For Biden likely voters, the plurality (39%) indicated that they support the president because they "dislike one of the candidates." In contrast, among Trump likely voters, the largest group (30%) supports the former president because they "like one of the candidates."

Kimball noted that party loyalty plays a role in candidate preference, with younger voters more likely to support their party's candidate, regardless of their personal feelings. As age increases, the influence of party affiliation decreases.

The poll also examined the characteristics that voters find important in a presidential candidate. Truthfulness was rated as the most important characteristic by 97% of voters, followed closely by authenticity at 95%. Other important factors include aligning with voters on key issues (94%), having experience (93%), being electable (89%), and having charisma (67%).

Regarding the ideal age of a president, voters in the surveyed states showed a preference for candidates in their 50s, as indicated by 32% of respondents. Those in their 60s came in second at 18%. However, a quarter of voters had no preference for the age of their ideal candidate.

In terms of the most critical issues influencing their vote for president, a plurality of voters (34%) in the six states listed inflation and the cost of living as their top concern. The economy and jobs ranked second at 22%, followed by threats to democracy (11%), crime and public safety (9%), healthcare access and costs (6%), gun control (5%), abortion access (5%), and the environment (5%).

When examining the issue preferences of Trump voters versus Democratic voters, it was found that a majority of Trump voters (44%) prioritized inflation, followed by the economy and jobs (27%). Democrats, on the other hand, were more divided in their priorities, with 21% considering inflation the top issue, 17% focusing on the economy and jobs, and 16% concerned about threats to democracy.

Undecided voters leaned towards the preferences of Trump voters, with 39% identifying inflation as their top issue, and 18% highlighting the economy and jobs.

The polls were conducted with a sample size of 1,000 registered voters in each state, totaling 6,000 participants. The credibility interval for the sample is +/- 3% in 19 out of 20 cases in each state, with a total credibility interval of +/- 1.06%.

As always, it is important to take into account demographic subsets within the poll, as smaller sample sizes may lead to higher credibility intervals.