Stocks closed the trading session on Monday with a mixed performance, as investors turned their attention to the forthcoming release of the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. This data point is crucial for the Federal Reserve in determining its next interest rate decision. The report, set for release on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to show a deceleration in headline inflation to 3.3% from September's 3.7% annual gain, according to Bloomberg estimates. Consumer prices for October are projected to have risen by 0.1% on a monthly basis, slower than September's 0.4% increase.

Lower energy costs, driven by a projected 1.8% month-over-month drop in energy prices, are expected to contribute to the smaller gain in headline figures. Food inflation is likely to continue at a trend-like pace of 0.2% month over month. On a "core" basis, which excludes the more volatile costs of food and gas, prices in October are estimated to have risen by 4.1% over last year, matching September's annual increase. Monthly core prices are expected to have climbed by 0.3%, aligning with September's monthly rise.

In addition to inflation data, investors will also closely monitor the earnings reports of various retailers this week. Home Depot, Target, Walmart, Macy's, TJX Companies, and BJ's Wholesale will all be reporting, providing insight into the health of the retail sector. Furthermore, Wednesday's release of the October retail sales figures will offer a key read on the state of consumer spending. Wall Street economists surveyed by Bloomberg anticipate a decline in retail sales for October, which would mark the first month-over-month decrease since March. Investors are particularly interested in monitoring the potential impact of student loan payments restarting, declining excess savings, and higher borrowing costs on the American consumer.

In terms of oil demand, OPEC's latest monthly report indicates that despite recent downbeat sentiment, fundamentals remain strong. The report highlights robust global growth trends, including US economic data for the third quarter and upgraded Chinese economic growth projections of 5.4% for 2023. The data reveals an increase in Chinese crude imports to 11.4 million barrels per day in October, putting them on track to reach a new annual record high this year.

OPEC attributes the recent decline in crude prices to financial market speculators, who have significantly reduced their net long positions since late September, selling the equivalent of more than 200 million barrels of oil. This has led to increased market volatility and accelerated price declines. On Monday, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude edged higher, trading just above $77 per barrel, while Brent crude also gained fractionally, hovering above $82 per barrel. These levels represent a significant difference from the highs seen in late September and the rally experienced in the third quarter.

With investors eagerly awaiting the inflation data, retail earnings reports, and monitoring oil market dynamics, the week ahead will provide vital insights into the state of the economy and potential factors impacting various sectors.