Stocks Close Down, but November Promises Strongest Month in Over a Year
ICARO Media Group
Stocks closed down on Monday, with the major indexes experiencing a slight dip, despite the ongoing rally on Wall Street. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) slipped about 0.2%, or more than 50 points, while the benchmark S&P 500 (GSPC) also lost 0.2%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (IXIC), which had been trading positively for most of the day, slipped in late trading, closing down roughly 0.1%.
Despite the downbeat trading session, investors remained optimistic as the averages continued their winning streak into a fifth consecutive week. This positive sentiment has been driven by high hopes for an end to interest rate hikes in the US, propelling November's stock market rally. The Dow is on track to achieve its strongest month since October last year, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are set to reach their best performance since July 2022.
The VIX, commonly referred to as Wall Street's "fear gauge," closed on Friday at its lowest level since January 2020. This indicates that market optimism remains intact. However, as the trading week began after the long Thanksgiving holiday weekend, Monday's trading session showed a more muted mood.
The upcoming reading on PCE inflation, due on Thursday, could potentially test the strength of the rally. The PCE inflation is the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of consumer price pressures and will provide valuable insight into the state of the US economy.
In the meantime, investors are closely monitoring updates from Cyber Monday to gauge consumer spending trends during the holiday season. Black Friday online sales saw a significant increase of 7.5% year over year, reaching a record-breaking $9.8 billion, while in-store totals also experienced substantial growth.
In other market news, strategists from BMO Capital Markets and Deutsche Bank have offered bullish projections for the S&P 500 in 2024. They expect the index to reach 5,100 by the end of next year, marking a new all-time high. These projections are based on expectations of normal GDP and earnings growth, valuations, and bond yield ranges. Both banks also anticipate earnings per share of $250 in the year ahead, the highest projections on Wall Street to date.
Roku stock saw a notable surge of approximately 8% on Monday following an upgrade by Cannonball Research. The upgrade to Buy from Neutral was prompted by expectations of "more meaningful" upside to current fiscal 2024 estimates. The research indicates that platform revenue, including ad sales, distribution deals, and the over-the-top streaming service The Roku Channel, is expected to reach around $3.37 billion in fiscal 2024.
Oil prices experienced a dip on Monday as Qatar announced an extension of the temporary truce between Israel and Hamas for another two days. Meanwhile, market participants are eagerly awaiting the next steps on output cuts from the consortium of the world's largest oil producers at a key OPEC+ meeting scheduled for Thursday.
Gold prices moved higher on Monday, crossing above $2,010 per troy ounce, reaching their highest level since May. This increase comes as investors adopt a more risk-off outlook amid growing optimism that the US economy can achieve a "soft landing." Gold prices have risen over 2% since the latest inflation report, which showed a slower increase in core inflation.
The market witnessed mixed performance in afternoon trading on Monday, with the S&P 500 edging slightly lower by approximately 0.09%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank about 0.3%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 0.2%.
The dominance of the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks, including Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Tesla, and Nvidia, continues to draw attention and has led to comparisons with the inflated valuations seen during the dot-com era. These tech giants collectively make up around one-third of the S&P 500's market cap and have experienced an 80% increase in value this year. However, when their growth is excluded, the S&P's performance remains relatively flat.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong expressed relief following the major Binance settlement with US authorities. He believes that the enforcement action will allow the industry to move forward, leaving behind the uncertainty that has plagued the crypto world. Binance agreed to pay fines and restitution of $4.3 billion and pleaded guilty to various charges relating to money laundering and sanctions violations.
In morning trading, Shopify shares rose over 4% as the e-commerce platform reported that merchants recorded $4.1 billion in sales on Black Friday, a more than 20% increase from the previous year. Amazon also saw an increase of over 1%, alongside numerous other retailers, as Cyber Monday deals kicked off following a strong start to the holiday shopping season. On the other hand, Foot Locker shares fell more than 2% after Citigroup analysts downgraded the stock to a Sell rating.
The trading day began with the major indexes staying close to the flatline amid ongoing market optimism. The S&P 500 edged higher by approximately 0.07%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average remained unchanged. The Nasdaq Composite experienced a slight loss of nearly 0.2%.