Stock Market Prepares for December Jobs Report and SEC Approval of Bitcoin ETFs
ICARO Media Group
In the after-hours trading session, Dow Jones futures, S&P 500 futures, and Nasdaq futures remained relatively unchanged. Market participants eagerly await the release of the December jobs report and the anticipated approval of the first spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
The stock market rally experienced a mixed but moderately weak Thursday. Despite a resilient showing by the bulls, the major indexes closed near session lows as the 10-year Treasury yield approached 4%.
Several stocks are finding support at key technical levels, including Novo Nordisk (NVO), which broke out on Thursday. On the other hand, Eli Lilly (LLY) backed off after initially surpassing early entries to start 2024. Spotify (SPOT) and MercadoLibre (MELI) rose bullishly off crucial levels.
Notably, Nvidia (NVDA) witnessed a rise from its 10-week line, while Tesla (TSLA) saw a slight increase off its corresponding 10-week line as it worked on forming a handle.
Novo Nordisk and Nvidia stocks were added to IBD Leaderboard, joining the ranks of other leading stocks. Eli Lilly stock features on SwingTrader, while both SPOT and MercadoLibre stocks were added on Thursday. MercadoLibre was recognized as IBD Stock of the Day. MELI stock and Novo Nordisk stock are part of the IBD 50 index.
The Labor Department is set to unveil the much-anticipated December jobs report at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists predict that nonfarm payrolls will rise by 158,000, slightly lower than November's figures of 199,000. The jobless rate is expected to tick up to 3.8%. Average hourly earnings are projected to increase by 0.3% compared to the previous month and by 3.9% year-on-year, both showing a slight cooldown compared to November.
Subsequently, at 10 a.m. ET, the December ISM services index will be released. Analysts anticipate a reading of 52.7, the same as November's figure, indicating modest growth in the service sector.
With regards to market sentiment, there is now a two-thirds probability of Fed rate cuts beginning in March, a decrease from the near-certainty observed just a week ago.
In a noteworthy development, the SEC is expected to approve spot Bitcoin ETFs as early as Friday, as confirmed by multiple sources. Trading for these ETFs is expected to commence next week. The anticipated approval has driven the surge of cryptocurrencies and related stocks, such as CoinDesk (COIN) and Marathon Digital (MARA), over the past year, particularly in the last three months.
On Thursday, Bitcoin witnessed a 3.6% increase, reaching $44,463.40 after previously retreating from a 20-month high above $45,000. COIN stock rose 2.2% and reclaimed its 21-day line following significant losses over the three previous trading sessions, while MARA stock soared 12.1% to $26.27 after a slight rebound on Wednesday. Marathon had reached a 52-week high of $31.30 on December 27.
As the market opens, Dow Jones futures rose 0.1% compared to fair value. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures also experienced slight gains.
The release of the December jobs report is expected to have a significant impact on Dow futures and Treasury yields on Friday morning.
Projections for market activity based on overnight trading in Dow futures and other indices do not always correspond to the actual trading during regular stock market sessions.
Despite back-to-back losses of over 1% on the Nasdaq at the beginning of 2024, the stock market managed to hold its ground on Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a slight increase, while the S&P 500 index declined by 0.3%. Additionally, the Nasdaq composite experienced a nearly 0.6% fall, and the small-cap Russell 2000 slipped by 0.2%.
The S&P 500 closed just below its 21-day moving average, while the Russell 2000 encountered resistance at the 21-day mark. The Nasdaq fell for the fifth consecutive session and approached the upper boundary of its range from July to early December, with the 10-week line positioned just below.
Several high-quality stocks displayed bullish movements and approached buy areas, contingent upon the market's resumption of its upward trajectory.
At the same time, the 10-year Treasury yield jumped by 8.5 basis points, hitting 3.99% and once again nearing the crucial 4% level.
Among various growth ETFs, the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) experienced a slight dip of 0.25%. Similarly, the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) dropped by 0.6%, despite Nvidia stock holding the top position in the ETF.
In terms of speculative story stocks, the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) achieved an 0.8% increase, while the ARK Genomics ETF (ARKG) rose by 1.1%. COIN stock remained the top holding across Ark Invest's ETFs, with Tesla also retaining a significant position. Cathie Wood's Ark Invest purchased some TSLA shares while divesting from Coinbase on Wednesday.
Other notable exchange-traded funds, such as the SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) and the Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF (PAVE), witnessed a marginal increase of 0.2%. The U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS) rebounded by slightly more than 2%. However, the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) experienced a 0.2% decline, and the Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) retreated by 1.75%.
In specific sectors, the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) climbed by 0.5%, with LLY stock being a key holding. The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) improved by 0.1%, while the Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) saw a 0.4% upswing.
Furthermore, Tesla (TSLA) faced stiff competition from BYD as the latter emerged as the leading electric vehicle manufacturer.
In individual stock news, Novo Nordisk (NVO) experienced a 3.9% surge, surpassing a flat-base buy point of 105.69, according to MarketSmith analysis. The relative strength line for NVO stock has shown a rebound since mid-December. Novo Nordisk announced two deals on Thursday to enhance its obesity-drug franchise.
Conversely, Eli Lilly (LLY) observed a 0.5% decline to $614.50 after briefly surpassing a flat-base buy point of $629.97. LLY stock had previously broken resistance near $600 and breached the 50-day moving average on Tuesday. Additionally, Eli Lilly announced the launch of a direct-to-consumer online site.
Spotify (SPOT) shares rose by 2.5% to $192.58, rebound