BELGRADE, Serbia - The Serbian government expressed gratitude towards Russia's intelligence services this week for their role in uncovering plans for protests in Belgrade against the country's disputed election results. However, this revelation has sparked concern among thousands of anti-Putin Russians who have sought refuge in Serbia since the Ukrainian invasion, as they fear their adopted country is increasingly falling under Moscow's sway.

The news has triggered anxiety among the Russian diaspora, many of whom have found sanctuary in Serbia due to its friendly ties with Russia and their inability to afford a European Union visa. Sergei, an IT professional from Moscow who fled to Belgrade to escape the Kremlin's September 2022 mobilization, stated, "It made me think: Do I need to pack my bags and go somewhere else?"

Initially grateful for Serbia as the only place where he could live a normal life with a Russian passport, Sergei now voices his concerns about the country gradually transforming into Russia. He shared, "We can feel Serbia is turning into Russia, and it's scary."

The anti-government protests erupted following Serbia's December 17 elections, which resulted in a resounding victory for President Aleksandar Vucic's populist ruling party. Opposition groups as well as EU monitors denounced the elections for widespread harassment and vote rigging. Thousands of protesters, including members of the Russian community, took to the streets of Belgrade to denounce the "stolen" victory and express their worries about Serbia's potential descent into autocracy.

The demonstrations, which culminated on December 25, witnessed a group attempting to force entry into the National Assembly building, although protesters argue that these individuals were likely planted by the government to justify police intervention. Consequently, 38 protesters were detained, and some suffered severe beatings at the hands of the police.

Opposition MP Borko Stefanovic, a former deputy speaker of parliament, affirmed that the protests would persist, claiming that Vucic's regime is reverting to its old, radical, violent, and pro-Russian ways. The violence subsided after Prime Minister Ana Brnabic expressed gratitude to Russian security services for their alert regarding the upcoming protests, enabling Serbian police to prepare a timely response.

While pro-Kremlin Telegram channel RuSerbia instructed the Russian diaspora to stay away from the protests, Russians living in Serbia increasingly assert that they are feeling the influence of both the Serbian government and Moscow. The Russian community, exceeding 300,000 individuals, largely consists of those opposed to the war and Putin, as well as those who migrated for business purposes.

Prior to the Serbian elections, reports emerged of growing harassment, pressure, and interrogation against anti-war Russians. This summer, four members of the Russian Democratic Society, an NGO raising funds for Ukrainians and detained dissidents in Russia, were deported, branded as a "threat to Serbian national security." Among them was Yevgeny Irzhansky, expelled for organizing concerts featuring anti-Putin artists.

Activists fear that former security minister Aleksandar Vulin, known for his close ties to Moscow, and Russian diplomats expelled from EU countries for security reasons, are exerting pressure on local politicians. Right-wing groups supportive of Vucic's election campaign painted a giant Russian flag emblazoned with the Kremlin's favorite propaganda slogan in Belgrade's main pedestrian street. These same groups frequently target the Russian diaspora, posting memes encouraging violence against perceived "liberal traitors."

Russian state-backed media outlets such as Sputnik and RT enjoy popularity in Serbia, disseminating pro-Kremlin and right-wing narratives. Furthermore, there are allegations of Serbian volunteers fighting for the Russian army in Ukraine. Trade between Serbia and Russia has also intensified, with an influx of Russian goods on Serbian shelves and rakia, a local alcoholic beverage, appearing in Moscow stores. Consequently, Serbia has become heavily reliant on Gazprom, Russia's state-owned gas giant.

Despite substantial support for Putin among the Serbian population, concerns are mounting regarding Moscow's interference and collaboration with the government against protesters. The large Russian anti-war diaspora, combined with reports of Russian intelligence involvement in the Serbian elections, is reshaping some Serbs' perception of Moscow.

The ongoing protests in Belgrade have provided hope for anti-war Russians in Serbia, who find it unimaginable to witness such demonstrations in their home country. While concerns about the future persist, many within the Russian diaspora continue to quietly engage with their Serbian acquaintances, attempting to challenge pro-Kremlin narratives and foster dialogue on critical issues.

The pro-European opposition parties supporting the Serbia Against Violence coalition have stated that, if in power, they would align their foreign policy with the EU and consider imposing sanctions on Russia. However, they also promise to protect the rights of Russians already residing in Serbia.

The growing discontent among Russians living in Serbia, coupled with the implications of Russian interference and collaboration in Serbian politics, has sparked a reevaluation of Moscow's influence. As Serbia grapples with its democratic aspirations, the Russian diaspora finds itself questioning the nature of their adopted country and the impact it may have on their own future.