In a bid to gain influence in Kazakhstan, Western leaders have been actively engaging with the Central Asian country that has historically been within Russia's sphere of control. President Vladimir Putin's recent visit to Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan, coincided with the Russia-Kazakhstan Interregional Cooperation Forum, where both leaders emphasized the importance of bilateral trade links and signed agreements related to energy, customs, and labor. However, the Russian leader's visit came hot on the heels of French President Emmanuel Macron's trip to Kazakhstan, signaling the intensifying competition between Russia and the West for influence in the region.

While Kazakhstan continues to maintain close ties with Moscow, it has also striven to assert its independence in foreign policy matters. The country has refused to support Russia's invasion of Ukraine and President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has distanced himself from accepting Russia's perspective on changing borders by force. Tokayev has even held talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and provided humanitarian aid to Ukraine.

During Putin's visit, an unusual event occurred when Tokayev delivered his opening remarks in the Kazakh language, rather than Russian, which was customary for welcoming Russian delegations. This shift was viewed by some observers as a reflection of Kazakhstan's growing influence in shaping the dynamics of its relationship with Russia.

Western leaders, recognizing Kazakhstan's independent stance on Ukraine, have made it a priority to engage with the country. President Macron's visit focused on business ties, as France is the fifth-largest foreign investor in Kazakhstan and is interested in securing the country's uranium supply for its nuclear power plants. However, Macron also publicly praised Tokayev's stance on Ukraine, aligning with the West's support for Ukraine and hoping to maintain Kazakhstan's position.

The United Kingdom has also expressed its intention to strengthen its engagement in Central Asia, including Kazakhstan, stating that it is a "geopolitical imperative." U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Astana in February 2023, further emphasizing the West's commitment to engaging with Kazakhstan.

While Kazakhstan has not made any significant policy shifts towards Russia or Ukraine in response to these overtures, the Kremlin is not oblivious to the growing influence of Western nations in the region. Moscow has traditionally viewed Central Asia as an area where Russia has sole rights to exert its influence and is therefore concerned about Central Asian countries engaging with the West.

"Moscow sees Central Asia as a region where only Russia has full kind of rights to do whatever they want. Of course, they are jealous when Central Asian countries are negotiating with the West," says Temur Umarov, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.

The competition between Russia and the West for influence in Kazakhstan highlights the strategic importance of the country and its potential role as a gateway to Central Asia. As Kazakhstan navigates this delicate balance, striking a balance between maintaining traditional ties with Russia and expanding its partnerships with Western countries will shape its future foreign policy direction.