In a surprising turn of events, anti-vaccination activist and independent candidate Robert F Kennedy Jr has successfully qualified for the 2024 presidential ballot in his first state. Utah election officials announced that Kennedy Jr had collected the necessary 1,000 signatures for ballot access, marking a significant milestone in his unconventional campaign.

Kennedy Jr, a member of the Democratic political dynasty, has a lineage that includes a president and a senator among his uncles. Initially, he had planned to run for the Democratic Party nomination last year. However, he later withdrew and announced his independent run.

The 2024 race is already seeing a variety of independent and third-party candidates seeking to make an impact. Notable among them are the Green and Libertarian parties, a centrist group called No Labels, and philosopher and left-wing activist Cornel West, who is also making an independent run. These candidates aim to challenge the low favorability ratings of major party front-runners Joe Biden and Donald Trump.

As an independent candidate, Kennedy Jr faces the challenge of navigating the complex state rules to get his name on the ballot. While some states have relatively simpler processes, such as Louisiana's requirement of paying a $500 fee and nominating eight volunteer electoral voters, others, like California, demand nearly 220,000 signatures, constituting 1% of the state's registered voters.

Utah, with one of the earliest deadlines for signature collection on January 8th, saw Kennedy Jr's campaign successfully sue to delay the deadline, arguing it was unconstitutionally restrictive. At a news conference in Salt Lake City, Kennedy Jr criticized the "undemocratic lock" held by major political parties over the electoral process and expressed his campaign's commitment to spending $15m on ballot access efforts.

However, the path ahead for Kennedy Jr remains uncertain. Without the backing of a third party, his campaign lacks the structure to effectively collect the necessary signatures in various states. With ballot access laws generally becoming tougher for independent candidates, it is unclear in how many more states Kennedy Jr will be able to qualify.

Bernard Tamas, an associate professor and author, explains that minor parties have adjusted to these hurdles, but independent candidates face a tougher road. The lack of a clear focus or galvanizing issue in Kennedy Jr's campaign could hinder his chances as successful third-party campaigns often have an identifiable impact on the course of US politics.

It remains to be seen how Kennedy Jr's campaign will impact the general election. While some polls suggest his presence could help Donald Trump, others indicate he may draw support from the right, benefiting Joe Biden. As the election draws nearer, many Americans who theoretically support third parties tend to revert to one of the major parties.

Robert F Kennedy Jr's quest for the presidency is poised to make waves, but the ultimate outcome and influence he wields in this race are yet to be determined.