Bloomberg - Just weeks after the installation of Republican ultra-conservative Mike Johnson as House speaker, tensions are escalating within the party, raising concerns of potential turmoil and an increased risk of a government shutdown in the new year.

The discontent among conservative hard-liners stems from Johnson's support of an interim funding measure that postponed a government shutdown until mid-January, without securing the concessions that conservatives had hoped for. This move has reminded many of Johnson's predecessor, whose removal sparked a bitter battle for succession.

Despite holding a slim and fractious majority in the Republican House, the assertive hard-liners remain steadfast in their expectations for significant cuts in government spending and conservative policy changes. They are determined not to back down, even though their leverage is limited.

Adding to their frustration, Johnson prevented the addition of amendments that would have imposed conservative demands to the funding measure, using the same procedural maneuver previously employed by Kevin McCarthy to avert a shutdown on October 1st. Johnson relied on support from Democrats, with 209 votes in favor compared to only 127 Republicans, while 93 Republicans voted against the measure.

In a display of their ability to undermine the new speaker's authority, disgruntled ultra-conservatives utilized procedural tools to derail the consideration of an annual spending measure, resulting in Johnson being forced to abandon work for the week and send lawmakers home early for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Although Johnson identifies as an "arch-conservative" with a background in fighting against abortion and same-sex marriage, leading figures in the revolt against McCarthy, such as Representative Matt Gaetz of Florida, have refrained from launching a major attack against Johnson at this point.

However, Johnson is now on notice that he must deliver on the demands of the hard-liners when funding to keep the government operating expires in early 2023.

"We want our speaker to bring about the change that's needed," stated Bob Good of Virginia, one of the eight Republican lawmakers who joined forces with Democrats to depose McCarthy.

The short-term funding measure proposed by Johnson, which was passed by Congress and signed by President Joe Biden, sets the stage for a potential two-stage shutdown if an agreement on annual government spending cannot be reached. Some government agencies will remain funded until mid-January, while others will have funds until early February.

Johnson maintains that this timeline allows House Republicans ample time to reach an agreement on full-year spending measures for the entire government.

"We shouldn't do this, and we're not going to do it again next year," Johnson remarked in reference to the interim funding.

However, the demands for funding cuts and conservative policy changes from the Republican hard-liners face opposition not only from Democrats, who now control the White House and Senate, but also from divisions among House Republicans themselves. These divisions have hindered the passage of the 12 annual appropriations bills that traditionally determine government spending. To date, the GOP has managed to pass merely seven of these bills, despite their October 1st deadline.

The slim majority held by the Republican Party in the House means that party leaders can only afford to lose three votes on any legislation unless they receive support from Democrats. Furthermore, 18 House Republicans represent districts won by Biden in the 2020 election and must consider the concerns of more moderate voters who may be alienated by the staunchly conservative positions of the hard-line House Freedom Caucus.

"Speaker Johnson can't deliver what the Freedom Caucus demands and keep the government funded," warned Joshua Huder, a senior fellow at American University's Government Affairs Institute. Unless the hard-liners are willing to find common ground with Democrats, Johnson's tenure may be at risk, leading to a weaker speakership, policy losses to Democrats, or potentially all of the above.