In a recent report by maritime advisory firm Sea-Intelligence, it has been revealed that the disruptions caused by Houthi rebel attacks in the Red Sea are now having a more damaging impact on the supply chain compared to the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic. The data analyzed the current vessel delays and compared them to delays in previous years.

According to Sea-Intelligence, the longer transit around the Cape of Good Hope, as ships divert from the Red Sea, is already significantly affecting the availability of vessels to pick up containers at ports. This decline in vessel capacity is the second largest in recent years, with the only event surpassing it being the incident involving the cargo ship "Ever Given" getting stuck in the Suez Canal in March 2021.

While the Covid-19 pandemic caused widespread disruptions in the global supply chain, there is a key difference in the current situation. Unlike the pandemic when all vessels were being utilized due to high demand, there is currently excess vessel capacity that could be brought back into service to help alleviate the issues caused by the Red Sea crisis. Approximately 10% of the world's fleet is currently not in service, offering the potential for increased vessel availability and more certainty in vessel schedules.

Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence, highlights that the addition of one or two vessels to offset the delays caused by the longer route around the Cape of Good Hope could be a solution. Ocean carriers are expected to add vessels to their rotation after the Chinese New Year. However, the number of vessels added will depend on demand.

The disruptions in vessel arrival and container delays are already impacting some companies' supply chains. Tesla, Volvo, Michelin, Ikea, British retailer Next, and Crocs have reported delays or halts in manufacturing due to the delays in container arrivals. The threats to Red Sea shipping are considered a threat to maritime commerce worldwide, as delays and cost increases continue to disrupt global logistics.

Apart from the impact on the supply chain, the diversions away from the Red Sea are beginning to have a significant effect on energy markets and product tanker operators. Shell has suspended shipments through the Red Sea, and BP has already made this move. According to data from supply chain intelligence firm Kpler, there have been 25 LNG vessel diversions from the Red Sea to the Cape of Good Hope since December 15, with four vessels heading from Qatar to Europe. Several tanker operators and energy companies, including NYKK Line, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Reliance, ADNOC, Torm, Hafnia, Stena Bulk, Hafnia, BP, Frontline, Equinor, and Euronav have chosen to avoid the area following recent warnings.

The longer transit times around the Cape of Good Hope have raised concerns about a potential supply shortage of tankers and have already impacted product tanker rates. Analysts suggest that companies such as Tom, Hafnia, Scorpio Tankers, and Ardmore could benefit if product tanker rates rise due to the diversions from the Red Sea.

In light of these developments, it is crucial to address the safety of crews and the security of cargo by eliminating existing or future threats entirely. While the addition of vessels to the flow of trade could help alleviate the potential container crunch, logistics managers remain concerned about the disruptions caused by the ongoing Red Sea crisis. The impact on vessel schedules and container delays could have ramifications for global exports, affecting trade routes between Europe, Asia, and the United States.

The duration of the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea remains uncertain, with estimations ranging from six months to a year. Recent attacks on U.S.-owned bulk vessels and a Greece-based bulk vessel highlight the continued threat to international shipping posed by the rebel group.

As the crisis unfolds, it is essential for stakeholders and industry experts to work collectively towards finding solutions to ensure the safety of maritime commerce and minimize the disruptions caused by this significant event.

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