As the winter season progresses, Minnesota continues to experience an unusually mild and foggy weather pattern. According to the Midwest Regional Climate Center, this winter has already set a record for its mildness, with temperatures consistently above normal. Despite a brief 10-day cold snap, the region is now back to its incredibly warm winter, showing signs of potentially becoming the warmest in 151 years.

December, in particular, was exceptionally warm, registering the warmest average temperatures on record statewide and in the Twin Cities. Even with a few cold days in mid-January, this month has also been running above normal. These temperature anomalies departures from normal are expected to rise even further by the end of the month due to a prolonged warmup.

Apart from the warm temperatures, Minnesota has also been lacking in snowfall this season. Most areas are behind by an astounding 10 to 20 inches since the start of the season, with January being among the least snowy months on record. The Twin Cities, for example, saw only 2 inches of snowfall, making it the eighth least-snowiest January in history.

The combination of the strong El Niño and the absence of snow cover has contributed to the unusually high temperatures. However, experts emphasize that climate change is undeniably playing a role as well. The Climate Shift Index by Climate Central indicates that these warming temperatures have made the occurrence of record warm lows three times more likely. On average, winter temperatures in the state have warmed by five degrees, leading to significant impacts on extreme highs and lows.

Looking ahead, February could prove decisive in determining the ultimate ranking of this winter's warmth. If the current trend continues, it is projected that this winter will secure the top spot in the Twin Cities' 151-year history. The closest contender is the winter of 1877-78, which saw an average February temperature of 31.5 degrees, 11.1 degrees above the modern average for February. To maintain its top ranking, this winter would need to be at least 10.6 degrees above normal, or even warmer.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center, the official outlook for February suggests a high likelihood of above-normal temperatures. Various climate models also indicate a mild February, with temperature anomalies ranging from plus-6 to plus-7 degrees in the Twin Cities.

However, it's important to note that the models have consistently underestimated the extent of warmth seen in December and January. These unprecedented temperature departures from normal have proven challenging for the forecast models. Twin Cities climatologist Mark Seeley's analysis of similar strong El Niño episodes revealed that Minnesota's February temperatures typically averaged 10.6 degrees above normal, matching the magic number needed to secure the top spot this year.

As February unfolds, residents of Minnesota brace themselves for what could potentially be the warmest winter in over a century. The record-breaking warmth continues to defy expectations, emphasizing the growing impact of both climate change and natural climate phenomena on the region's climate patterns.