In June's European elections, populist "anti-European" parties are projected to make significant gains, potentially shifting the balance of power in the European Parliament towards the right and jeopardizing key pillars of the EU's agenda, particularly climate action. A comprehensive analysis of polling data from all 27 EU member states, combined with past election results, indicates that radical right parties are likely to finish first in nine countries, including Austria, France, and Poland.

Furthermore, these parties are projected to secure second- or third-place finishes in another nine countries, such as Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Sweden, potentially forming a majority right-wing coalition in the parliament comprising Christian Democrats, conservatives, and radical right MEPs. The implications of this political shift are far-reaching, as the next European Parliament could hinder laws related to Europe's green deal and adopt a tougher stance on EU sovereignty matters, including migration, enlargement, and support for Ukraine.

The report, authored by political scientists Simon Hix and Kevin Cunningham for the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), serves as a "wake-up call" to European policymakers. They warn that the election results could also impact domestic debates, strengthening the axis of governments aiming to limit the EU's influence from within, including Hungary, Italy, Slovakia, Sweden, and potentially the Netherlands if Geert Wilders' Party for Freedom (PVV) leads a new government.

The potential return of Donald Trump in the United States, coupled with an inward-focused coalition in the European Parliament, may lead to a rejection of strategic interdependence and international partnerships in defense of European interests and values, caution the researchers.

According to the projections, mainstream political groups in the European Parliament, such as the center-right European People's Party (EPP), center-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D), centrist Renew Europe (RE), and Greens (G/EFA), are all expected to lose MEPs. On the other hand, more radical groups, such as the populist right and the far-right Identity and Democracy (ID) and European Conservatives and Reformists Group (ECR), are poised to emerge as the main victors. This could potentially result in a majority coalition for the first time.

While the EPP is likely to remain the largest group and retain its agenda-setting power, the report emphasizes that populists, especially from the radical right, are expected to have a greater influence than ever before. The researchers predict that the voices of populists will carry significant weight in several founding member states, with parties like Giorgia Meloni's Brothers of Italy and Marine Le Pen's National Rally expected to boost their MEP tallies.

Notable projections include the radical right Freedom Party (FPÖ) in Austria doubling its MEP count to six and the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) in Germany nearly doubling its representation to 19 seats. Populist eurosceptic parties are also predicted to win first place in Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, France, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, and Slovakia, while securing second or third place in several other countries.

Consequently, the far-right ID group is projected to gain up to 40 more seats, potentially making it the third political force, and opening the possibility of a "populist right" coalition (EPP, ECR, and ID) with 49% of MEPs in the new parliament, according to the report.

The authors of the report highlight the potential impact of Hungary's Fidesz party, led by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. If Fidesz joins the national-conservative ECR, it could become the third-largest group, significantly influencing the political landscape. The current "super coalition" of mainstream parties (EPP, S&D, and RE) is projected to decrease from 60% to 54% of MEPs.

The report emphasizes that the biggest implications of this election's outcome will be on environmental policy. Parties that have been instrumental in driving progress on environmental issues, such as S&D, RE, and the Left, could face opposition from populist parties forming an "anti-climate policy action" coalition.

Similarly, the alliance of centrist and center-left parties that have pushed for rule of law measures against Hungary and Poland may see its influence eroded. The authors call on policymakers to analyze the underlying trends driving current voting patterns in Europe and develop narratives that highlight the necessity of a global Europe in an increasingly challenging geopolitical climate.

These elections are crucial for those advocating for a more global Europe, as they represent an opportunity to safeguard and strengthen the EU's position. The campaigns should focus on providing citizens with reasons for optimism, emphasizing the benefits of multilateralism, and showcasing the ability of mainstream parties to protect fundamental European rights concerning democracy and the rule of law.

In summary, the upcoming European elections hold significant implications as populist parties make gains across the continent, potentially shifting the balance of power in the European Parliament and jeopardizing the EU's agenda on climate action and other key areas. Policymakers and mainstream parties are urged to pay attention to these trends and develop clear narratives to address the challenges facing Europe in an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape.