Article:

As Congress gears up for a busy year of legislative battles, House Republicans find themselves facing a narrow majority, making every vote crucial for passing party-line priorities. With Republicans holding just 220 seats and Democrats holding 213, there is little room for error in major policy decisions. Additionally, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise is currently working remotely until February as he recovers from a stem cell transplant, further complicating the delicate vote math for the GOP.

The House Republican majority will face a further reduction in numbers with Ohio GOP Rep. Bill Johnson's upcoming resignation on January 21 to assume the presidency of Youngstown State University. This will decrease Republican control in the House to 219 seats, while Democrats will have 213.

Furthermore, there are currently two vacancies in the House following the resignation of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy and the expulsion of former GOP Rep. George Santos from New York.

This reduced majority puts pressure on Speaker Mike Johnson as Congress approaches crucial policy battles in the coming weeks. The most pressing issues at hand include preventing potential government shutdowns on January 19 and February 2, as well as negotiating agreements on border security and aid for Ukraine and Israel. However, finding consensus on these matters remains uncertain and challenging.

Congress passed temporary funding legislation in mid-November, extending government funding until January 19 for various critical areas, such as military construction, veterans' affairs, transportation, housing, and the Energy Department. The rest of the government will be funded until February 2.

Amidst these deadlines, there are concerns that some House Republicans might push for a government shutdown if their demands regarding border security are not met. Hardline conservative border policies have gained significant influence within the chamber due to the narrow majority. Last year, a group of hardliners even attempted to remove Kevin McCarthy from the speakership, revealing their ability to sway decisions.

While the exact size and influence of the far-right faction within the House Republican Conference may vary, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer recently criticized House conservatives, referring to "the 30 of them" who have made hardline demands on border policy. However, it remains unclear which specific lawmakers Schumer was referring to.

Another factor that could impact GOP control is the presence of politically vulnerable members from battleground districts within the House GOP conference. Currently, there are 17 Republicans in House districts won by President Joe Biden in the 2020 election, down from 18 due to George Santos' expulsion. The fate of these members will play a crucial role in determining whether the Republican Party can maintain its majority in the coming years, particularly during the 2024 election.

Speaker Mike Johnson is faced with the challenging task of balancing the demands of the far-right faction and the more moderate elements within the Republican conference. As Congress braces for government shutdown battles and contentious debates on issues like border security, achieving consensus on key policy matters will require skillful navigation and compromise.