In the days leading up to the Iowa caucuses, Republicans in the state are facing an unexpected challenge: a "life-threatening" blizzard and bone-chilling temperatures that may jeopardize voter turnout. With temperatures dropping to twenty below zero, concerns of stay-inside conditions hindering participation have surfaced.

Party officials, campaign operatives, and candidate surrogates agree that former President Donald Trump is likely to benefit from the bad weather. Trump boasts a highly committed voter base and has consistently led in recent polls of the state. His supporters are known for their dedication, and many believe they would brave any conditions to caucus for him.

However, some fear that the inclement weather could stall the momentum of former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, who is currently running second to Trump in New Hampshire. Rising poll numbers and growing crowds have suggested she has a chance to surpass Florida Governor Ron DeSantis for second place in Iowa. Haley has been forced to convert several planned rallies into virtual events due to the weather, while outside group Americans for Prosperity Action has had to consider adjusting its door-knocking campaign.

Both DeSantis and Haley have invested heavily in their Iowa campaign operations, but DeSantis appears to have the advantage in terms of organization. He has traveled to all 99 counties in the state, built an extensive field operation, and engaged in door-to-door campaigning extensively. DeSantis allies and operatives from both parties acknowledge the effectiveness of his turnout organization, which has been designed to withstand challenging weather conditions.

Meanwhile, Vivek Ramaswamy, running fourth in recent polls, believes the harsh weather could actually benefit him. Ramaswamy argues that people tend to be less likely to go out when it's cold, potentially giving his supporters an advantage. Despite this, Donald Trump Jr. expressed concerns about complacency among Trump voters, suggesting that media reports may deliberately downplay his expected vote share in order to discourage turnout.

Iowans, faced with the decision of whether to brave the elements and caucus, remain divided. Some have already pledged their commitment to attend despite the weather, while others, particularly older voters, have expressed concerns about the outdoor perils and may choose to stay home.

The Iowa caucuses, historically significant in determining a candidate's viability, are set to take place on Monday. As the final stretch approaches, candidates are focusing on organization and mobilization efforts, while keeping a close eye on the unpredictable winter weather that may have a significant impact on the outcome.