In a surprising turn of events, the referendum held by Venezuela to validate its claim over two-thirds of Guyana's territory has backfired, as voter turnout remained abysmally low across the country. The Venezuelan government has faced accusations of falsifying the results due to the underwhelming participation. Guyanese officials expressed relief at the poor turnout, while Venezuelan analysts criticized the government for its alleged manipulations.

The disputed Essequibo region, which is rich in oil reserves, has been a source of contention between the two nations since Venezuela gained independence in 1811. The matter is currently under review in the international court of justice. In an attempt to rally public support, President Nicolas Maduro urged Venezuelans to back the government's stance through appeals on social media platform TikTok and national television.

The referendum consisted of five questions, including whether Venezuela should ignore international arbitrators at the Hague, grant citizenship to the English-speaking inhabitants of Essequibo, and convert the territory into a new Venezuelan state. However, voting stations across Venezuela reported a low turnout, with few queues observed throughout the country.

Guyanese Foreign Secretary Robert Presaud highlighted that the Venezuelan people had sent a strong message to Maduro with their lack of participation. While Guyanese officials did not directly comment on the results, sources close to the government affirmed their relief. The situation had escalated tensions between the neighboring countries, leading to increased military activity on their borders. Brazil also deployed troops to its jungle frontier amid concerns that the referendum could trigger military action.

Venezuela's government claimed that more than 10.5 million people had participated in the referendum. However, independent analysts questioned the validity of these figures, as they did not align with reports from voting stations. An image allegedly shared and deleted by Venezuela's electoral authority revealed a table indicating around 2 million votes for each of the five questions, raising suspicions of vote tallies rather than individual voters.

Experts urged the Venezuelan government to publish detailed breakdowns of the votes to validate their claims of success. Geoff Ramsey, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, emphasized that the low turnout was a significant public relations disaster for Maduro's regime. Intelligence gathered by Guyana and its allies suggested that the actual turnout was fewer than 1.5 million people, indicating a manipulation of results.

Guyana, which holds a fraction of its population in the Essequibo region, remains cautious despite the perceived failure of the referendum. Foreign Minister Hugh Todd expressed concern over Maduro's unpredictable actions, describing him as a dictator making decisions unilaterally. While Maduro may still claim victory due to the 95% support for his government's questions, the referendum's outcome revealed that citizens prioritize more pressing issues, such as the economic collapse and mass migration affecting Venezuela.

The failed referendum poses a challenge for Maduro as he navigates towards the presidential elections expected next year. Opposition candidate Maria Corina Machado is predicted to defeat him if the elections are free and fair. The United States has warned of reimposing sanctions relief if Maduro does not permit a fair contest. With the failure to mobilize support around the Essequibo claim, Maduro's options might become limited, potentially leading to further concerns over the future of Venezuela's democratic process.