In a stunning turn of events, the government is finding itself in much deeper trouble than anticipated ahead of Tuesday's vote on the emergency Rwanda legislation. Conversations with potential rebels within the right-wing of the Conservative Party have revealed a hardening resolve against supporting the government's bill.

Previously, some MPs had expressed a willingness to back the government with hopes of amending the legislation later on. However, these same MPs now appear to be more pessimistic about the probability of successful future amendments. One MP stated, "It's now or never," emphasizing the urgency of the situation.

Notably, Rishi Sunak, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, has acknowledged that this is the toughest possible bill, further compounding concerns. Additionally, legal advice from the influential European Research Group (ERG) has cautioned that certain changes desired by the group may not be feasible under the scope of the current legislation.

In light of these challenges, some Conservative members are calling for the bill to be withdrawn, questioning whether Sunak would be willing to undermine his flagship immigration policy in such a manner. One former minister warned that such a move would be "humiliating for the government."

Further complicating matters is the fact that more constraints on the right to appeal could provoke discontent within the One Nation group. Damian Green, a leading figure in the group, stated that if Sunak continues to move towards the right, "we won't stomach it."

Despite expressing support for the government in Tuesday's vote, the One Nation group implied that their support might waver if significant concessions are made. Sunak himself has warned that any further compromises would result in the Rwandan government withdrawing its support.

If the prime minister proceeds with the vote, the crucial question becomes not only the number of Tory rebels but also the manner in which they rebel. Voting against the bill at the second reading would symbolize opposition to the principles rather than just its details, making many Conservative MPs hesitant to do so. Some rebels might instead opt to abstain, depending on the level of support from their colleagues.

The potential consequences of a significant rebellion against the government would undoubtedly be politically disastrous for Sunak. If the whips inform him that defeat is imminent, he may withdraw the bill to avoid such a situation. Nonetheless, forging ahead and being defeated could potentially lead to a leadership election or even a general election.

As Tuesday approaches, uncertainty looms over the outcome, with numerous permutations and shifting dynamics at play. More clarity on how ERG MPs plan to vote is expected to be revealed later. Nevertheless, one thing is clear - public dissent within Parliament continues, highlighting the precarious nature of Sunak's authority over his party.