In a surprising turn of events, Geert Wilders, the leader of the far-right PVV Freedom Party, emerged victorious in the recent Dutch elections, securing 37 out of 150 parliamentary seats. The outcome has sparked worry and apprehension among European nations, particularly regarding the future of their support for Ukraine, as Wilders has shown a strong affinity for Russia and skepticism towards Dutch military aid to Ukraine.

Wilders, notorious for his proposals to ban the Quran and close mosques, has consistently expressed admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin and his administration. In 2018, Wilders visited Moscow and met with senior Russian politicians, proudly wearing a pin symbolizing Dutch-Russian friendship. This visit led to criticism from other political parties, with a spokesperson for the center-left D66 party labeling Wilders as "Putin's useful naïf." Nevertheless, Wilders commended Putin for his dedication to the Russian people.

Highlighting his stance on Ukraine, Wilders firmly believes that the Netherlands should terminate its military support for the country. According to the manifesto of his Party for Freedom (PVV), the Netherlands should refrain from sending financial aid and defense equipment, such as F16 jets, to Ukraine. Instead, the funds and resources should be allocated to bolstering the Dutch armed forces.

The current Dutch centrist coalition, which heavily supports Ukraine, actively advocates for increased military support and supplies for the war-torn nation. Outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte, a likely candidate for the position of NATO Secretary-General, played a significant role in urging the United States to enhance their materiel provisions, including tanks. Additionally, the Dutch government has been a leading member in a coalition that provided Ukraine with vital support, such as F16 jets.

The possibility of Wilders forming a new government and implementing his policies depends on his ability to gain the support of a majority of parliamentarians, which will be challenging considering the reluctance of potential coalition partners. The pro-Ukrainian, center-right Party of Freedom and Democracy (VVD) has already announced its refusal to form a government with the PVV, opting instead to consider supporting individual policies on a case-by-case basis.

Another right-wing party, Pieter Omtzigt's New Social Contract, is also supportive of military and financial aid for Ukraine, NATO membership for Kyiv, and the establishment of a tribunal for Russian war criminals. If Wilders fails to form a new government, new elections may be held, which could potentially strengthen his political position.

The consequences of Wilders' victory extend beyond Dutch borders. Kiev, already grappling with a prolonged war, is now uncertain about the unwavering backing of European nations. The European Union's commitment to support Ukraine for "as long as it takes" is called into question as the rise of far-right movements, similar to Wilders' campaign, threatens the solidarity of European leaders.

Ukraine finds itself in a precarious situation as it seeks to regain stability and reinforce its armed forces. Now in its third year, the war has intensified the urgency for rearmament, while simultaneously facing constraints in securing critical support from the United States. European support is deemed essential, especially as the European Council aims to reach an agreement regarding Ukraine's path to EU membership by December. However, the veto power of Hungary, which may obstruct this process, could further diminish President Volodymyr Zelensky's aspirations for his country.

While there are reservations about the extent of public support for abandoning Ukraine, Wilders' victory highlights the shifting landscape of European politics and the challenges it presents for Ukraine's future. Regardless of Wilders' success in forming a new government, his political engagement has already influenced the support of other European nations for Ukraine. The Kremlin perceives this as a positive development, as it weakens the united front presented by European leaders and reinforces Russia's strategy of waiting for European support to dwindle.

In summary, Geert Wilders' far-right victory in the Dutch elections raises concerns about the future of Dutch military support for Ukraine. As the Dutch government takes a strong stance in favor of Ukraine, Wilders' opposition to providing aid and resources to the country could pose a significant challenge to Ukraine's ongoing conflict and aspirations for European integration.