In a recent development, a European military source has revealed that the devastating explosion at al-Ahli hospital in central Gaza was likely caused by a misfired rocket launched by a Palestinian faction. This information contradicts the initial claims made by Hamas, attributing the blast to an Israeli air strike. The source also suggested that the death toll of the explosion may be lower than initially announced.

According to the Gazan Ministry of Health, at least 471 people lost their lives in the explosion, while US intelligence sources estimate the death toll between 100 and 300. However, the European military source questions these figures, stating that it is highly unlikely for 471 people to have died based on the observed damage and the usual dead-to-injured ratio. The source highlights the limited structural damage and the absence of significant human remains at the blast site.

Upon examining satellite images of the point of impact, the military source observed a 30-cm-deep hole measuring approximately one meter by 75 cm in diameter. This damage pattern aligns with a rocket carrying around 5 kg of explosives, and no more than 10 kg, according to the source. Additionally, there were no remnants of a rocket or missile found at the site, further suggesting a misfired rocket as the probable cause.

The source also dismissed other potential scenarios, such as an air-to-ground strike by an Israeli fighter jet, stating that the impact and damage observed are inconsistent with the weapons used by the Israeli military. The possibility of an intercepted Palestinian rocket was also ruled out, as the interception system typically destroys incoming projectiles in mid-air. The source ruled out mishandling of explosives and car bombings, as there is no surveillance or satellite imagery supporting such claims.

Analysing the context, the European military source highlighted the misfiring rate of Palestinian rockets, estimating it to be around 10 percent. This aligns with the hypothesis that a misfired rocket from a Palestinian faction caused the explosion at al-Ahli hospital. The source referred to confidential information exchanged with other intelligence services, revealing that by October 17, Hamas and other Palestinian factions had launched approximately 6,500 rockets, compared to 5,000 to 6,000 Israeli strikes.

As investigations continue, it is evident that the circumstances surrounding the blast remain complex and subject to ongoing analysis. The conflicting narratives between Hamas and Israeli authorities, coupled with the discrepancies in the reported death toll, add further ambiguity to the tragic event. Determining the true cause and casualty numbers will require meticulous examination of all available evidence and cooperation between international intelligence services.

It is crucial for thorough investigations to be conducted to provide clarity and accountability for the victims and their families. The aftermath of this event serves as a stark reminder of the devastating impact of the ongoing conflict in the region, highlighting the urgent need for a peaceful resolution to prevent further loss of innocent lives.

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