Egypt's President el-Sisi Seeks Third Term Amidst Economic Challenges and Regional Turmoil
ICARO Media Group
Egypt's President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi is vying for a third term as he faces a crucial election on December 10. However, his bid comes as the country grapples with a spiraling economy and regional conflicts that pose significant challenges to both domestic stability and international influence.
The Egyptian economy is currently in a state of crisis, with soaring public debt reaching above 88 percent of the country's GDP in 2022. Inflation has remained consistently high at over 35 percent since June, further exacerbating the financial strain on households. As a result, many Egyptians are reportedly seeking second jobs and cutting back on household expenses, including reducing their food consumption.
El-Sisi's grip on power appears unshakable, as he has solidified his control over the state over the past nine years. Critics, such as veteran publisher and government critic Hisham Kassem, languish in jail, while a constitutional referendum in 2019 extended the presidential term to six years. Internet censorship has also been prevalent, with thousands of websites being shut down.
The Egyptian president enjoys unwavering support from the army, while no clear opponent has emerged. With these advantages, analysts widely anticipate el-Sisi's victory in the upcoming election.
Egypt faces severe economic challenges, aggravated by international grain shortages resulting from Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The price increases on essential subsidized goods have pushed them out of the reach of many citizens, contributing to a poverty rate of approximately 30 percent. The devaluation of the Egyptian pound against the US dollar on the black market has further worsened the economic situation.
To alleviate the financial strain, Egypt has received financial support from the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The IMF has provided a loan of $3 billion, reflecting the international community's concern about the country's stability. Debt repayments of $42.26 billion loom on the horizon, leading experts to believe that austerity measures might be implemented post-election.
Some analysts argue that Egypt's influence in the region has diminished in recent years. Egypt's regional counterparts, such as Libya and Sudan, are increasingly taking on leading roles. However, others, both within Egypt and abroad, contend that Egypt still wields significant influence. They highlight Egypt's success in combating armed groups, its role as a regional powerbroker, and its pivotal involvement in negotiations between Israel and Hamas, as well as securing aid for Gaza.
Despite these challenges, various nations and global organizations have demonstrated their commitment to supporting Egypt. The ongoing crisis in Gaza has led the IMF to augment its support, reflecting the determination of Egypt's backers in the US, Europe, and the Gulf. This further solidifies Egypt's influential position in advocating for additional aid to be allocated to Gaza.
The previous elections in 2014 and 2018 overwhelmingly supported President el-Sisi, with a vote of 97 percent on both occasions. In the coming days, Egypt is expected to deliver another resounding victory for the incumbent president, cementing his hold on power amidst the country's complex economic landscape and volatile regional dynamics.