As the Iowa caucus draws nearer, former President Donald Trump continues to dominate the field of Republican candidates, according to the latest NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll. The survey, which recorded the largest lead in history so close to a competitive Republican caucus, reveals that Trump's support has surged to 51% among likely Republican caucusgoers, up from 43% in October.

Trump's commanding lead in Iowa complicates the path forward for his remaining opponents who were hoping for a decline in his popularity as the first voting neared. Ron DeSantis now sits a distant second with 19% support, compared to 16% two months ago. Meanwhile, Nikki Haley remains in third place with 16% of voters choosing her as their first choice. Vivek Ramaswamy garnered 5% support, edging ahead of Chris Christie who had 4%.

The non-Trump candidates face an uphill battle as they strive to convince voters, political leaders, and donors that they are still credible contenders. For instance, Haley's campaign has received only a single endorsement from a member of Congress and polls showing her trailing by 35 points in Iowa do not bolster her prospects.

However, the DeSantis campaign remains confident in their ground game, which has predominantly focused on Iowa. They argue that public polling does not accurately reflect the outcome of caucuses, as it is all about turning out supporters. DeSantis himself addressed the latest survey during a campaign event, highlighting the historical inaccuracies of polling. The campaign believes that their strong ground game, including support from state legislators, county chairs, faith leaders, precinct captains, Governor Kim Reynolds, and evangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats, will propel them to success.

Haley's campaign, on the other hand, is banking on her rising popularity in other states, such as New Hampshire, which often diverges from Iowa voters. They hope for a weak performance from DeSantis in Iowa, which would undermine the rationale for his campaign and give Haley an opportunity to consolidate support heading into the first-in-the-nation primary. Additionally, they expect to benefit from new ground resources provided by AFP Action, a recent endorser of Haley's candidacy.

Vivek Ramaswamy's team, buoyed by a recent Morning Consult poll that places him in third with 13% support, emphasizes that their campaign is attracting a different set of voters. Roughly half of the attendees at Ramaswamy's events are registered Republicans, while the rest are independents, disaffected Democrats, or politically unaffiliated individuals. They find the Des Moines Register poll's 5% figure inconsistent with the groundswell of support they are witnessing firsthand.

Chris Christie, in contrast to other candidates, has focused less on Iowa and instead concentrated his efforts on New Hampshire. The former governor appears indifferent to polling data and hopes to gain traction in the neighboring state.

As the January 15 caucus approaches, the Iowa political landscape remains dominated by Donald Trump, solidifying his position as the frontrunner. While his opponents strategize and work to overcome the polling data, Trump's continued strength sets the stage for an intense and competitive race in the coming weeks.

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