In recent years, Colorado has experienced a significant shift in its population dynamics, with residents flocking to neighboring states and southeastern regions. According to data, the state lost residents to Wyoming, Utah, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, and Arizona, along with a net outflow of nearly 10,000 people to Florida.

Forecasting international migration has become increasingly complex, as it depends on various factors such as conditions in countries of origin, immigration policies, and border regulations. The number one source of uncertainty in these forecasts is international migration, which has been influenced by an influx of refugees from countries like Afghanistan and Venezuela.

Colorado, being a second-tier state, does not typically serve as a primary entry point for international migrants like California, Texas, New York, and Florida. However, the state's future net migration relies on maintaining robust job growth, a challenge it has faced during the current year. The rapid advances in automation and artificial intelligence raise concerns about potential job displacement in higher-paying fields, although the return of manufacturing to the U.S. could boost economic growth.

Furthermore, the forecast assumes that retirees in Colorado will choose to age in place rather than cashing out their accumulated home equity and relocating to warmer and more affordable areas. The state's high housing costs have made it less attractive to young adults looking to establish their careers and companies seeking to hire them, as well as hindering residents' ability to start families.

Colorado is now home to four of the most expensive metro housing markets outside coastal regions, namely Boulder, Denver, Fort Collins, and Greeley. Nevertheless, slower population growth has allowed the state to address its housing deficit, which has decreased from around 127,000 units in 2019 to 101,141 in 2021.

The impact of high housing costs has extended beyond the housing market, as it has led to an increase in households doubling up. An estimated 680,000 hidden households exist within primary households, indicating the strain that high housing prices have put on residents.

Another significant demographic trend in Colorado is the aging population. Assuming migration patterns can be restored, over half of the population gains expected in the next decade will come from individuals aged 65 and above. The second-largest surge in population is anticipated among those aged 25 to 44, while the number of residents aged 0 to 17 is projected to decline.

If the combination of high home prices and a lack of job opportunities continues to deter young people from moving to Colorado, it is anticipated that most population growth in the state within the next decade will occur in the 65-plus category. By the next five years, approximately 200,000 workers are expected to retire, leaving a need for new workers to fill both these vacancies and additional jobs created by a growing economy.

A foreshadowing of the effects of an aging population can be seen in Jefferson County, where an estimated 7,000 people have been lost since 2020. While out-migration plays a role, the county's older population attributes the decrease mainly to deaths.

Despite these challenges, certain municipalities in Colorado have experienced population growth. Last year, the municipalities that added the most residents were Windsor, Colorado Springs, Erie, Castle Rock, and Boulder. Keensburg registered as the state's fastest-growing municipality, with a growth rate of 19.4%, followed by Mead, Deer Trail, Severance, and Tinmath.

Interestingly, Greeley and Commerce City, though smaller in size, added more residents than Denver, which had a minimal growth rate of 0.2%.

Demographic expert DeGroen predicts that by 2050, Colorado's population will reach 7.5 million, with a rapid decline in natural increase from around 2030. As a result, the state will become increasingly reliant on migration for population growth.

According to projections, of the expected 1.7 million people that Colorado will add between 2020 and 2050, 1.5 million will be concentrated along the Front Range. Metro Denver and Boulder will account for 54% of population gains, while Weld and Larimer counties will contribute 26% and the southern Front Range, primarily El Paso County, will see a 20% increase.

The Western Slope is also anticipated to experience population growth, with Mesa, Garfield, and Eagle counties being the primary recipients, expected to gain a total of 170,000 residents by 2050.

As Colorado navigates the challenges of migration patterns, housing affordability, and an aging population, policymakers and stakeholders will play a crucial role in shaping the state's future development and maintaining its status as an appealing destination for residents and businesses alike.