US Surpasses Job Projection Surging by 254K in September, Market Reactions Soar
ICARO Media Group
**US September Jobs Report Exceeds Projections, Driving Market Reactions**
The latest US jobs report for September revealed a stronger-than-expected performance, with non-farm payrolls surging by 254,000, far surpassing the anticipated 140,000. This positive development was complemented by a slight drop in the unemployment rate to 4.1%, edging closer to the 4.0% mark, while the labor force participation rate remained steady at 62.7%.
Private payrolls saw a significant increase, rising by 223,000. Average hourly earnings also experienced growth, climbing by 0.4% month-over-month and 4.0% year-over-year, both figures exceeding forecasts. Although manufacturing payrolls declined by 7,000, the number represented an improvement over previous data.
Furthermore, the household survey indicated impressive job gains of 430,000. It highlighted a rise in full-time employment by 631,000 but noted a decrease in part-time positions by 201,000. This robust data lessened the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in the November meeting and bolstered the US dollar, signaling a robust US economy.
Federal Reserve official Goolsbee offered commentary on the report, describing it as "super." He also mentioned the end of the port strike as a positive factor but advised caution against overreacting to a single data point. Goolsbee pointed out that consistent strong job numbers would enhance confidence in achieving full employment and noted the link between robust job figures and GDP growth.
As the Federal Reserve assesses the neutral interest rate, Goolsbee suggested it might fall within the 2.5-3.5% range, emphasizing the need to maintain current economic conditions. While acknowledging signs of a cooling labor market, he dismissed the idea of a "soft landing" as the economy progresses. He outlined the Fed's ideal scenario with unemployment between 4-4.5% and inflation around 2%.
In the wake of the jobs report, stock markets reacted positively with the Dow industrial average closing at a new record high. The small-cap Russell 2000 surged by 32.65 points or 1.50%, closing at 2212.79. For the trading week, the Nasdaq saw a modest increase of 0.10%, the Dow rose by 0.09%, and the S&P gained 0.22%. In the US debt market, yields climbed significantly, and mortgage rates returned to 6.5%.
Currency markets also saw shifts, with the GBP and USD emerging as the strongest currencies, while the JPY was the weakest. As the market awaits the upcoming US CPI data release, which is expected to show a modest headline increase of 0.1% and a core rise of 0.2%, today's news has set a buoyant tone for the near future.