### Record-Setting Atlantic Hurricane Season Shows Spike in Rapid Intensification

Hurricane Oscar stunned forecasters over the weekend by escalating from a tropical disturbance with a mere 30% chance of development into a hurricane in just 12 hours. Oscar made two significant landfalls in the Caribbean, hitting Great Inagua Island in the Bahamas as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds early Sunday, October 20, and then northeastern Cuba later that same day. By Monday, October 21, the storm had weakened to a tropical storm over far eastern Cuba, dumping heavy rains and slowing considerably.

Oscar's rapid intensification and dual landfalls were part of a notable trend in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which has seen higher-than-average storm activity. Oscar was the third named storm to make landfall in the Caribbean this year, following Hurricane Beryl, a Category 4 storm that devastated Carriacou, Grenada on July 1, and Hurricane Ernesto, which brought 45-65 mph winds and $150 million in damage to the Leeward Islands in mid-August.

Tropical Storm Nadine also made headlines, landing near Belize City, Belize, on October 19 with 60 mph winds. Nadine was brief, maintaining tropical storm status for just 12 hours, making it the fourth storm of the season to last two days or less. Other 'short-lived' storms of 2024 include Alberto, Chris, and Gordon. These quick-forming events have been increasing significantly, a trend likely influenced by improved modern observation methods.

Oscar and Nadine were the first two named Atlantic storms of 2024 to develop simultaneously. Their emergence followed a burst of late-season activity, highlighted by catastrophic landfalls in the United States from Category 4 Hurricane Helene and Category 5 Hurricane Milton, along with the impressive journey of Category 4 Hurricane Kirk across the open ocean.

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has been active with 15 named storms, including 10 hurricanes and four major hurricanes. The accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index reached 143, indicating a particularly potent season. These figures surpass the long-term averages, which typically predict 13 named storms, six hurricanes, three major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 110 by this stage of the year.

Contrastingly, the Pacific Ocean has had a remarkably quiet year for tropical cyclones. The accumulated cyclone energy for the Northeast Pacific, Northwest Pacific, and North Indian basins is significantly below average. This disparity is attributed to climate phenomena like the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, which currently favors North Atlantic tropical activity while suppressing it in the North Pacific.

Overall, while the Atlantic has seen a surge of powerful hurricanes, the global tropical cyclone activity remains well below average for 2024, making it one of the quietest years in the Northern Hemisphere since satellite monitoring began 45 years ago.