In the race for the Georgia general election, a new poll shows that former President Donald Trump holds a slight lead over President Joe Biden. The survey, conducted by CBS News/YouGov, indicates that Trump is ahead of Biden among likely voters by three points, within the margin of error.

The driving force behind Trump's lead appears to be a small group of voters who had previously supported Biden in the 2020 election but have now switched their allegiance to Trump. Their decision is influenced by favorable views of how Trump's policies would impact the economy in Georgia.

Interestingly, when it comes to strengthening U.S. democracy, voters in Georgia are more likely to believe that Trump would be the one to do so rather than Biden. In fact, Biden's numbers on this issue are net negative, with a significant portion of his own supporters stating that his second-term policies would not make a difference.

Trump's strong support among his voters is tied to their belief in widespread voter fraud during the 2020 election in Georgia. Additionally, many of his backers perceive the charges and indictments against him as politically motivated, which further bolsters their endorsement of him as a defender of democracy.

Abortion access has also emerged as an important issue for Georgia voters, particularly after the recent Dobbs decision. While a majority of voters prefer legal access to abortions in the state, their stance does not necessarily align with party lines. Approximately three in 10 Georgia voters who support legal abortions still prefer Trump over Biden.

Furthermore, concerns about inflation and the U.S.-Mexico border emerge as significant factors influencing voting intentions. Many voters feel that Biden is not focused enough on these issues, and those who hold this view are more inclined to support Trump in the upcoming election.

Georgia, which famously went blue in the 2020 election, has a narrowing turnout gap that may impact the outcome of the 2024 race. Republicans and Trump's 2020 voters express higher levels of enthusiasm and are more likely to say they will definitely vote compared to Democrats and Biden's 2020 voters.

With Trump's current lead attributed primarily to persuasion rather than differential turnout, the possibility of a conviction altering voters' opinions remains uncertain. Trump's supporters, despite acknowledging that a guilty verdict could affect their perception of his fitness for the presidency, still harbor concerns about Biden's mental and physical capabilities.

The suburbs around Atlanta, a critical battleground region, have witnessed a noticeable shift toward Trump. This change, coupled with Trump's improved support among voters of color, adds complexity to the race. While Biden maintains a significant lead among voters of color, any potential shift from blue to red can prove decisive in a closely contested election.

To secure victory in Georgia, Biden's campaign must focus on mobilizing key segments of their 2020 coalition, particularly voters under 50, male Biden supporters from the previous election, self-described moderates, independents, and those who question the impact of a Biden presidency on the strength of U.S. democracy.

Despite economic sentiment at the national level, voters in Georgia hold a positive view of the state's economy. Additionally, Governor Brian Kemp enjoys significant approval ratings, even among Democratic voters.

The CBS News/YouGov survey, which sampled 1,133 registered voters in Georgia, was conducted between March 4 and March 11, 2024. The data was weighted according to demographic factors such as gender, age, race, education, and geographic region, as well as past voting history. The margin of error for the survey is ±3.9 points.