In what could be the first major rain event of the summer wet season, Florida braces itself for drenching and drought-busting showers. The southwestern parts of the Sunshine State near Fort Myers are expected to experience rainfall exceeding 15 inches. Widespread totals of 10 to 15 inches are likely to fall across the Florida Peninsula by late week, bringing some relief to the parched region.

The National Weather Service has issued a Level 2 out of 4 alert for flash flooding and excessive rainfall in central and southern parts of the Florida Peninsula from Tuesday through Friday. Flood watches may be issued ahead of the heavy rainfall on Tuesday. The relentless showers and thunderstorms pose a potential flooding risk as they persistently occur from Wednesday onwards.

This much-needed rainfall comes as a relief for areas that have been facing severe drought conditions, resulting in parched lawns and an increased risk of wildfires. By Saturday, the continuous downpours are expected to significantly reduce or eliminate a large chunk of the drought-stricken areas.

Although confidence remains low, the same weather system may redirect intense rainfall towards the Florida Peninsula or southern Alabama around Mobile during the weekend or early next week. However, this outcome remains uncertain at this time. In the meantime, isolated late-day thunderstorms are possible in central and southern Florida on Monday, with more scattered storms anticipated on Tuesday afternoon, particularly along the Gulf Coast.

The heaviest downpours are expected to make landfall on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with intermittent heavy rainfall continuing through Friday. Rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour are probable during the most intense downpours. While the downpours may ease slightly by Friday and Saturday, the axis of heaviest moisture could move northwards into the Big Bend of Florida or the Panhandle.

South Florida, from Punta Gorda and Fort Myers to Lake Okeechobee and Palm Beach, is likely to receive widespread total rainfall of 10 to 14 inches by Friday. Weather models suggest that Miami and Fort Lauderdale could see approximately a foot of rain, potentially resulting in urban flooding. Tampa, the Space Coast, including Cape Canaveral, and Orlando are expected to receive a general 5 to 10 inches of rainfall. As we move further north in Florida, the amounts taper down quickly, with 3 to 5 inches anticipated in the northern regions.

Aside from the risk of flooding, this rainfall comes as a much-needed respite for Florida, which is currently facing moderate to severe drought conditions, as reported by the U.S. Drought Monitor. The lack of rainfall during May, coupled with stagnant high pressure and hot weather, led to increased sunshine and evaporation of moisture from the soil, further exacerbating the drought. In fact, May was the hottest on record in the state of Florida.

While Miami and Naples remain within average rainfall levels for the year, Fort Myers is more than 7 inches behind. Additionally, there has been comparatively little rain in the last month, leaving Fort Myers nearly 3 inches behind, with Naples falling behind by approximately 3.5 inches.

Florida finds itself in a unique weather pattern called a "squeeze play," positioned between opposing weather systems. A high-pressure area over the western Atlantic Ocean spins clockwise, while a counterclockwise-spinning "shortwave" of low pressure is approaching from the southern Plains and is expected to stall over Texas, Louisiana, and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. These two systems are set to interlock, entraining tropical moisture from the Caribbean Sea and near Cuba, transporting it north-northeast towards Florida. As a result, the state will experience persistent showers and thunderstorms along a stationary front, which will lead to heavy rainfall as the systems move repeatedly over the same areas.

Residents are urged to stay informed and prepared for possible flash floods and the potential risks associated with prolonged heavy rainfall.