Severe Weather Alert: Potential for Significant Tornadoes Threatens Great Plains and Corn Belt
ICARO Media Group
**Severe Weather Threatens the Great Plains, Potential for Significant Tornadoes**
The Great Plains and Corn Belt are bracing for severe weather on Wednesday afternoon and evening, with risks ranging from severe thunderstorms to significant tornadoes. This weather event is expected to stretch from north Texas to Iowa, potentially impacting major cities such as Dallas, Oklahoma City, and Kansas City.
Kansas City is notably at the epicenter of a Level 3 out of 5 "enhanced risk" for severe weather, according to the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center. This elevated risk level signals the possibility of isolated tornadoes of EF2 intensity or greater. Meanwhile, most of north Texas and Oklahoma fall under a Level 2 risk category.
Beyond tornadoes, the storms are forecasted to deliver damaging straight-line winds and possibly large hail. These weather phenomena mark the front edge of a cooler and drier air mass, though it will not linger long. Another bout of warm, humid air is expected to swoop in later this week, bringing yet another risk for severe storms as the weekend approaches.
Interestingly, these storms might bring much-needed rain to the drought-stricken central and southern Plains. With over a quarter of Kansas grappling with severe drought conditions and a third of Oklahoma experiencing "extreme drought," the precipitation could provide some relief.
Storms are set to form along a cold front stretching northeast to southwest. Activity is expected to start in the late morning to around midday in northern regions and expand southward throughout the afternoon. Specifically, Kansas City and Oklahoma City are forecasted to encounter the storms in the evening, with Dallas likely seeing impacts around sunset.
The most significant threat of severe weather will be concentrated up to around 9 or 10 p.m. Central time, after which cooling temperatures should gradually reduce the risk. Initially, thunderstorms are predicted to join into a broken squall line, bringing damaging winds and potentially some penny-to-nickel-sized hail. While an isolated spin-up tornado cannot be ruled out, the likelihood of a significant tornado largely depends on the development of rotating supercells ahead of the main line of storms.
The highest conditional risk for these supercells lies in northern and northeastern Oklahoma and eastern Kansas. Key weather elements, including pockets of high-altitude cold air, low pressure, and atmospheric spin, are converging over the Four Corners and moving eastward. This disturbance is generating a new surface low over Colorado's Front Range, inching towards western Nebraska, and another weaker low forming in southwest Kansas.
These low-pressure systems are drawing in winds and causing colliding air, which aids storm formation in the mid-to-late afternoon. Strong jet stream winds will enable storms to bring damaging gusts to the ground, while changing wind patterns with height will sculpt early storms into rotating supercells that could pose a significant tornado risk.
By approximately 9 p.m. local time, cells are anticipated to merge into a line, reducing the severe threat after midnight.