As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine intensifies in recent weeks, concerns about Russia's dwindling artillery arsenal have emerged. While Russia may have an advantage in terms of firepower, there are growing doubts as to whether they have enough guns to sustain their offensive.

According to the Royal United Services Institute, a think-tank in London, Russia had just under 5,000 artillery pieces in the field in February. However, the production of artillery-gun barrels is a challenging task that requires specialized machinery and high-grade steel. With only two factories equipped to manufacture them at the outbreak of the war, ramping up production proves to be difficult.

Limited options for acquiring gun barrels further compound the issue. Few countries export such equipment, and even fewer would be willing to sell to Russia. North Korea has been suggested as a possible source, as it has already supplied shells. Additionally, satellite images show that Russia relies on replacing lost big guns from a stock stored in the open air.

However, Russia's stockpile of artillery has not remained unaffected over the years. Many guns have rusted and become unusable due to being stored in unsheltered yards. Furthermore, parts from these guns have been pilfered for use in other artillery pieces. This depletion has led to estimates that only around 2,000 self-propelled guns and 2,400 towed artillery pieces may still be operational.

Determining the exact number of functional guns is challenging, especially considering the uncertainty surrounding how many of Russia's oldest guns, such as the -30 howitzers dating back to World War II, can still be used. Additionally, the state of ammunition reserves remains unknown, adding to the complexity of the situation.

The Ukrainian armed forces claim to have destroyed over 10,000 Russian artillery pieces, but visual confirmations suggest a much lower number, with around 1,000 being estimated by the Netherlands-based analysis team, Oryx. However, it is difficult to accurately gauge the number of artillery losses as big guns are usually stationed far from the front lines.

Analysts predict that Russia could face a shortage of gun barrels by 2025, requiring a shift towards rocket artillery that relies on larger supplies of explosive material. While Ukraine has become increasingly effective at neutralizing Russian artillery, Russia may employ tactics such as withdrawing artillery pieces or relocating them further from the front lines to safeguard their assets. However, this could potentially hinder their ability to continuously pummel the Ukrainians.

The implications of Russia's depleting artillery resources present a clear challenge for further military engagements. As the conflict persists, the focus on maintaining adequate supplies of artillery becomes increasingly crucial for both sides.