In the latest update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), a system over the central tropical Atlantic has a medium chance of developing into the next tropical depression or storm of the season. The NHC now warns that most of Florida is within the potential path of this system.

According to the NHC's tropical outlook on Sunday morning at 8 a.m., the area of disturbed weather is expected to interact with an approaching tropical wave in the coming days. Forecasters anticipate that environmental conditions will become conducive for development, leading to the possible formation of a tropical depression by midweek. This formation could occur while the system is near or over the northern Leeward Islands, Greater Antilles, or southwestern Atlantic Ocean.

The NHC gives this system a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression over the next seven days. If it does reach named storm status, it would be called Tropical Storm Debby.

The projected area of concern outlined by the NHC encompasses a wide swath spanning the northern Caribbean islands. It also includes the possibility of the system curling up towards the Florida peninsula towards the end of the week. While initial forecasts showed the system potentially veering east of Florida and heading north up the Atlantic, other models indicated that it could impact the Florida Keys and potentially move up Florida's west coast into the Gulf of Mexico.

Forecasts for the path of a system that hasn't developed circulation yet can be challenging, making it difficult to predict its exact trajectory. The Atlantic region has not seen a named storm since Hurricane Beryl, which passed through the Caribbean, Mexico, and Texas. The NHC's last advisory for Beryl was issued on July 10.

In recent weeks, the presence of Saharan dust spreading west from the African coast has limited tropical development in the Atlantic. However, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has forecasted an above-average year for hurricanes in the Atlantic. They predict a total of 17 to 25 named storms, with eight to 13 of them becoming hurricanes. Furthermore, they anticipate that four to seven of those hurricanes will become major hurricanes.

The Atlantic hurricane season extends from June 1 to November 30. As the potential for a tropical depression forming near the Leeward Islands, Greater Antilles, or southwestern Atlantic looms, it is crucial for residents in potential impact areas to monitor the latest information and updates from the NHC.