In a recent national New York Times/Siena College poll, former President Donald Trump emerged as the front-runner, leading President Joe Biden by a margin of 5 percentage points. However, the findings have sparked skepticism among certain Democratic circles, who argue that polling consistently overestimates Trump's strength while underestimating Biden's. This doubt stems from recent primary results, where Trump underperformed his polling numbers and failed to capture moderate voters. It also extends to nonpresidential cycles under Biden, in which Democrats outperformed projections.

Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg voiced this sentiment, stating, "We've got a long way to go. We've got a lot of work to do. But I think everyone in this town... is overestimating their strengths and underestimating ours." Some Democrats quickly dismissed The New York Times poll, expressing confusion over specific findings. They questioned the equal split in female voters between Trump and Biden reported by the poll, as exit polls from 2020 showed Biden winning women by a 15-point margin.

Similarly, Democrats raised concerns about the poll's claim that Trump was leading Biden by 6 points among Latino voters. In the 2020 election, Biden secured a significant 33-point lead with this demographic, according to exit polls. Several Democratic strategists and pollsters noted that 97 percent of interviews with Latinos surveyed for the poll were conducted in English, potentially skewing the results.

Even Representative Dean Phillips (D-Minn.), who recently ended his long-shot primary bid against Biden, expressed skepticism regarding the poll's accuracy. In a post on social media, he wrote, "When the NYT/Sienna poll shows me at 12%, you better believe it is flawed. Only 5% even know who I am."

The Biden campaign's belief that Trump is overestimated by polls stems from the disparity between voter behavior and projections, as evidenced in this year's primary elections. Despite Trump's commanding lead in the Republican primary contests, he consistently fell short of what polls had projected. Moreover, he struggled to appeal to the moderate voters expected to play a crucial role in the general election.

While Trump did manage to match polling projections in certain races, such as winning Virginia by a larger margin than anticipated, the current polling average shows him ahead of Biden by about 2 percentage points nationwide. This raised concerns for Democrats since Trump lost the popular vote in 2016, even though he emerged victorious in the Electoral College.

The situation is not much better for Biden in swing states, with Trump leading in Georgia by 7 percentage points, in Arizona by 5 percentage points, in Pennsylvania by 4 percentage points, and in Michigan and Wisconsin by an average of 3 percentage points. Biden narrowly won all of these states in 2020.

Jason Miller, a senior Trump campaign adviser, dismissed the skepticism surrounding the polls, stating, "No, President Biden, the polls are accurate. Americans just don't like you for destroying our economy and our borders."

However, there are signs that Biden may be underestimated. Despite some Democratic primary voters casting ballots for "uncommitted" in protest of Biden's handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict, pollsters believe many of these voters will rally behind the president in the general election. Scott Tranter, director of data science for Decision Desk HQ, explained, "Historical vote patterns tell us staunch partisans usually come home, and as such, I expect Biden to get back many of those voters."

Democratic strategist Rosenberg argued that the strongest evidence against the accuracy of the polls lies in the fact that Democrats continue to win elections, particularly following the 2022 Supreme Court decision ending Roe v. Wade. Democrats defied expectations of a "red wave" and made gains, adding a seat to their Senate majority and achieving a narrower majority in the House than anticipated.

As the November 2024 Election Day is still approximately eight months away, the battle between Trump and Biden is far from over. However, the polling numbers and the skepticism surrounding their accuracy raise questions about the perceived strength of each candidate. Ultimately, only time will reveal the true picture of voter sentiments and the outcome of this potential rematch.