### OPEC+ Keeps Oil Output Steady, Scrutinizes Compliance by Iraq and Kazakhstan

LONDON/DUBAI - In a recent assembly, OPEC+ ministers upheld their current oil output strategy, including a planned increase in production set for December, while stressing the necessity for certain members to enforce additional cuts to offset previous excess production.

During an online joint ministerial monitoring committee meeting (JMMC) on Wednesday, key ministers from OPEC+ emphasized the critical importance of achieving full compliance and making necessary compensations. "Furthermore, the Committee will continuously assess market conditions," OPEC disclosed in a post-meeting statement.

The oil market witnessed a significant dip as prices fell below $70 per barrel in September for the first time since 2021. However, prices have since rebounded to above $75, amid fears that rising tensions in the Middle East following Iran's military attack on Israel could disrupt regional oil output.

Since late 2022, OPEC+ has been cutting output by 5.86 million barrels per day (bpd), which accounts for approximately 5.7% of global demand. The group plans to incrementally increase output by 180,000 bpd starting in December, part of a gradual easing of the recent voluntary cuts expected to last through 2025. Initially scheduled for October, this hike was deferred due to falling prices.

Compliance from member countries, particularly Iraq and Kazakhstan, was a focal point during the meeting. These countries had previously agreed to what are termed compensation cuts, amounting to 123,000 bpd in September with more reductions anticipated in subsequent months to atone for past overproduction. Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia affirmed they met their September targets; however, verification by the second week of October using secondary sources is needed, as per the OPEC statement.

An OPEC+ insider suggested that confirming the compensatory cuts for September is crucial for the planned December increase to proceed. Analysts believe non-compliance could lead Saudi Arabia and other producers to accelerate output increases. "If they fail to comply, we can envision a swifter sunsetting of the voluntary cuts," Helima Croft of RBC Capital noted.

The JMMC, comprising top oil ministers including those from Saudi Arabia and Russia, reconvenes every two months to review policies and propose recommendations. Their next meeting is scheduled for December 1, ahead of a full OPEC+ meeting.

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