After a lengthy legal battle and extensive efforts to redraw New York's congressional districts in favor of Democrats, the state Senate has voted to confirm new maps, signed into law by the governor. Surprisingly, the result of this gerrymandering attempt has resulted in an increase of Trump-won districts in the state, from five to six.

The highly anticipated Democratic gerrymander of the 2024 election cycle has not gone as planned, as the new maps have actually made some swing districts even redder, making them more difficult for Democrats to win. Notably, districts such as NY-01 and NY-19 have become slightly redder than before, potentially putting them out of reach for Democrats.

While the new maps did make two districts bluer, namely NY-03 and NY-22, the changes have not affected the likely outcomes of these races. Democratic politicians had hoped that the redrawn maps would allow them to gain as many as five seats in the November elections, but now it is expected that they will only be able to add half of one seat.

The unexpected outcome of the gerrymandering process has left congressional Republicans delighted. In fact, they have announced that they will not bring any legal contests against the Legislature's map, as they had previously planned. In addition, numerous state Republicans voted in favor of the new maps, further highlighting the unexpected turn of events.

The complex journey that led to this outcome began when the state's Independent Redistricting Commission failed to agree on nonpartisan congressional maps in early 2022. The Democratic-controlled Legislature then drew up its own version, which was subsequently agreed upon by the court's conservative majority, resulting in the need for an out-of-state special master to draw the 2022 maps.

Following the Democrats' loss of four Biden-won districts to Republicans in the November 2022 elections, they blamed the maps for their defeat instead of addressing the larger issues within their party. This led to a case being brought against the maps, claiming that they were only valid for 2022. The Court of Appeals, with its new liberal majority, agreed and demanded that the IRC be given another chance to redraw the maps. However, the changes made in the second attempt were minimal, essentially resembling the reviled 2022 maps.

Despite having the opportunity to redraw the maps with a clear Democratic advantage, New York Democrats opted for a map that barely improved upon the previous one. This decision has left many questioning the purpose of flipping the court and bringing the lawsuit, as well as the missed opportunity to significantly benefit the party.

Critics argue that the new maps fail to deliver the fair representation that the people of New York State deserve. The number of "split counties," which are divided into separate congressional districts, has actually increased from 16 on the reviled 2022 map to 33 on the new map. This aspect contradicts Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries' support for the map, as he claimed it would reduce split counties.

The fallout from these unexpected results may have repercussions for Jeffries' chances of becoming Speaker, as he may fall short of a majority in the November elections. House Democrats have allocated a significant amount of funding to boost campaigns in six swing districts in New York, hoping to overcome the challenges posed by the unfavorable district lines and the weaknesses of the state party apparatus.

As the 2024 election cycle unfolds, New York Democrats find themselves back to square one, with the unexpected outcome of their gerrymandering efforts serving as a cautionary tale. While Republicans have shown a willingness to seize opportunities and prioritize the party's interests, New York Democrats have seemingly focused more on individual fates, ultimately leading to a gerrymandering outcome that offers minimal improvement for their party's prospects.