In preparation for the 2024 Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway, SportsLine has conducted 10,000 simulations to predict the possible outcome of the race. The top drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series standings will be competing for the coveted first-place finish in Sunday's race, scheduled to start at 3:30 p.m. ET.

Despite not cracking the top 10 at the Shriners Children's 500 last week, Kyle Larson still maintains his position at the top of the NASCAR Cup Series standings as he enters the 2024 Food City 500. Larson, priced at 21-4, trails behind Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell, who are currently 5-1 co-favorites for the race.

Unlike the previous three years, where the NASCAR at Bristol spring races were run on dirt, this year's race will take place on concrete. Larson has an impressive track record at Bristol, holding the best average finishing position of 2.7 since 2021. He has led 229 laps during that period, making him a strong contender for the top spot.

Denny Hamlin has also shown consistency on Bristol's concrete track, with three consecutive top-10 finishes. Meanwhile, Christopher Bell is coming off a victory in Phoenix last week, adding to his momentum heading into the race.

SportsLine's projection model, developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, has been highly accurate in predicting race winners in the past. In 2023, the model correctly predicted winners such as Martin Truex Jr., Joey Logano, Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, and Kyle Larson in various races.

For the 2024 Food City 500, the model identifies Kyle Busch as a potential dark horse despite being a 15-1 longshot. Although Busch has experienced recent setbacks at Bristol, finishing 20th or worse in his last three races, he has a strong overall performance record at the track. With eight wins at Bristol, ranking him fifth in NASCAR history, the model suggests that Busch may provide excellent value for bettors.

In a surprising turn of events, Christopher Bell, who is considered one of the favorites in Las Vegas, is projected to barely make the top five at Bristol. The model notes that while Bell has had success on concrete tracks, including a win on Bristol's dirt last spring, his overall performance on short tracks has been limited, with only one victory in the NASCAR Cup Series.

It's worth mentioning that Ford cars have seen success on Bristol's concrete track, winning three of the last five races. With that in mind, the model advises caution when considering betting on drivers from Joe Gibbs Racing, despite their historical success at the venue.

In addition to Kyle Larson and the surprising predictions for Kyle Busch and Christopher Bell, the model also identifies two other drivers who have odds of 15-1 or longer as potential contenders for victory.

As the countdown to the 2024 Food City 500 continues, fans and bettors alike are eagerly awaiting the exhilarating race at Bristol Motor Speedway. The SportsLine projection model provides valuable insight into the potential leaderboard, fueled by its previous successes in predicting race winners.