Investors Show Unwavering Faith as Truth Social's Path to Public Markets Nears
ICARO Media Group
In a show of unwavering faith, investors are eagerly awaiting the potential public debut of Truth Social, the social media company founded by former President Donald Trump. The company, which is anticipated to go public via a special-purpose acquisition company (SPAC), has gained a dedicated following on platforms like Reddit and Rumble as supporters pump up their investments in hopes of extraordinary returns.
Investors congregate on these platforms to discuss politics, religion, and the stock market, enthusiastically analyzing Truth Social's latest filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) while also finding solace in Bible verses. A particular proverb from the Old Testament, "Buy the truth and do not sell it," resonates deeply with this group of traders, who dub themselves the "diamond-handed" investors.
However, Truth Social's journey to the public markets has not been without its challenges. The company has faced scrutiny from an SEC probe, lawsuits from former employees, and financial constraints. But finally, a potential flotation seems imminent. On March 22nd, investors in the SPAC will cast their votes on whether to merge with Truth Social's parent company, Trump Media & Technology Group.
The merger comes at a crucial time for Trump Media, as the company has been struggling financially. In the first three quarters of last year, it reported a loss of $49 million and had only $1.8 million in cash reserves by September. Through the merger, the company aims to raise approximately $240 million, which would bring the new entity's market capitalization to $6.3 billion, based on the current share price.
While the number of daily active users remains undisclosed, Truth Social claims to have garnered 8.9 million sign-ups. However, some analysts question the economic sense behind the valuation, likening it to other meme stocks that have defied traditional valuation metrics. Trump himself stands to own a stake worth $4.1 billion, but a six-month lock-up period restricts his ability to access these paper gains amidst his ongoing liquidity crunch.
Trump's financial challenges extend beyond his investments in Truth Social. In February, he was hit with a sizable fine due to fraud committed at his property business, and by March 25th, he must secure a bond while appealing against the judgment. Despite facing difficulties in obtaining the bond due to his cash shortage, Trump is exploring various avenues, including selling assets or seeking financial assistance from wealthy supporters.
Economic reality could eventually set in as investors comprehend the potential impact of Trump liquidating his holdings. Historical data suggests that, on average, nine out of ten SPACs have experienced a decline in share prices after merging with the target company. This trend has resulted in significant losses for shareholders who chose to hold on post-merger, primarily comprising inexperienced retail investors.
Although some skepticism exists, supporters like Chad Nedohin, a hype-man on Rumble, vehemently defend the legitimacy of Trump Media, stressing that it is not a Ponzi scheme. Nedohin assures his followers that they are assisting in promoting a company with the potential to reach a trillion-dollar valuation and that significant payouts await them.
As the vote approaches and the prospect of a merger grows closer, investors remain steadfast in their beliefs, hoping that Truth Social's journey to the public markets will bring them the extraordinary returns they seek. Only time will tell if their unwavering faith translates into success or if economic realities will ultimately prevail.