### Intel's Strategic Gamble: A New Role on the Geopolitical Stage

Intel's current transformation isn't just about regaining its former glory; it's positioning itself as a crucial player in the global power dynamics surrounding semiconductor technology. This unfolding story is less about a company's decline and more about a high-stakes maneuver with vast international consequences.

Under the leadership of CEO Pat Gelsinger, Intel has embarked on an ambitious, high-risk strategy aimed at reclaiming a dominant position in the chip manufacturing industry. This grand plan includes negotiating deals, like the one with ASML for the first machine capable of producing a new generation of chips, and making substantial capital investments that won't yield significant returns for several years. These efforts are costing Intel roughly $16 billion annually.

Recent reports emphasize Intel's layoffs and rumors of a potential acquisition by Qualcomm, fuelling narratives of decline. However, they often miss the broader geopolitical context. Semiconductors are strategic assets essential to both American and Chinese national security. Currently, only three companies can produce leading-edge chips: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), Samsung from South Korea, and Intel, which is currently third.

Passing with bipartisan support, the 2022 CHIPS and Science Act aims to mitigate exposure to global supply chain risks by subsidizing domestic chip production. Intel was the primary beneficiary, receiving nearly $20 billion in subsidies to build new manufacturing facilities in Arizona and Ohio. This act reflects the United States' intent to host all three leading chipmakers on its soil, marking a strategic consolidation of semiconductor manufacturing.

These developments set the stage for a competitive and complex international landscape. Intel plans to start producing advanced chips by the first half of 2025, with complete financial rehabilitation projected by 2030 or later. However, TSMC aims to produce leading-edge chips in Taiwan sooner than its U.S. facilities, and Samsung's and TSMC's U.S. plants could potentially outperform Intel's efforts.

Adding to the mix, China's President Xi Jinping has announced ambitions for China to become self-sufficient in chip production by 2027, and has instructed the military to prepare for a potential invasion of Taiwan the same year. If China gains control of TSMC, it would present numerous geopolitical dilemmas, including potential U.S. responses and the future of Intel's competitive standing.

Intel's role now transcends traditional corporate boundaries, exemplifying what Lazard CEO Peter Orszag describes as a shift where corporations become vital geopolitical actors. This new reality challenges traditional methods of corporate evaluation and positions Intel as a key instrument and target within global foreign policy actions.