### Counterpoint Research: US iPhone Sales to Decline Amid Tariff Concerns

Counterpoint Research has substantially reduced its growth forecast for the smartphone market this year, now projecting a downturn in US iPhone sales. The research firm suggests that Apple may raise the prices of the iPhone 17 models to offset the costs of US tariffs, resulting in decreased consumer demand.

Initially, Counterpoint anticipated a global smartphone market growth of 4.2% for the year. However, the impact of US tariffs and challenges in China have led the firm to lower its projection to a mere 1.9% growth. This downward revision highlights significant market contractions expected in North America and China.

In the US, Counterpoint forecasts a year-on-year decline in the sales of both iPhones and Samsung smartphones, attributing this to "expected price rises from tariffs." These price increases are anticipated despite some mitigation of the tariff burden compared to previous worst-case scenarios.

The research firm has also revised its 2025 global smartphone shipment growth forecast to 1.9% YoY from the earlier projection of 4.2% YoY. The uncertainties surrounding US tariffs are a significant factor driving this revision. While most regions are still expected to grow, North America and China are likely to see a decline or near-flat growth, respectively. In China, weaker-than-expected market reactions to the government's subsidy program have also contributed to the revised outlook.

Apple and Samsung have adjusted their growth projections downward, anticipating that cost increases will be passed on to consumers, thereby affecting demand. This trend underscores the broader economic challenges that major smartphone manufacturers face due to fluctuating trade policies.

The current projections by Counterpoint are based on the assumption of a stable tariff environment through 2025. However, the escalating trade rhetoric and policy uncertainty could significantly impact pricing strategies, supply chain logistics, and ultimately, consumer demand.

For now, it remains unclear whether Apple will absorb these additional costs or pass them on to consumers. Considering that the company estimates nearly a billion dollars in costs this quarter due to tariffs, a price increase for the iPhone 17 seems increasingly plausible.