The 2024 baseball season has been a tumultuous one for starting pitchers, marked by a string of injuries and a shifting landscape. Among the casualties is New York Yankees' ace Gerrit Cole, who has finally returned to the mound after battling elbow inflammation. Cole's delayed debut highlights the challenges faced by many name-brand pitchers this year.

Since news of Cole's injury broke in March, a staggering 17 major league hurlers have undergone Tommy John surgery, adding to the woes of the pitching fraternity. Cole's relatively swift return without requiring surgery, however, places him among the fortunate few in what has proven to be a difficult year for renowned aces.

Looking at the current scenario, it's evident that even the most reliable pitchers no longer guarantee stability. Star pitchers like Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, Clayton Kershaw, and Robbie Ray are yet to make a significant impact in the 2024 season. Other well-known pitchers like Blake Snell, Justin Verlander, and Kevin Gausman have also faced challenges, with injuries and underwhelming performances hampering their seasons.

Despite the setbacks, the overall performance of starting pitchers this year has shown some positive signs. Starters' share of all pitching WAR has increased, and there has been a rise in starts lasting six or more innings. The emergence of breakout pitchers like Tarik Skubal, Luis Gil, Tanner Houck, Ranger Suárez, and Shōta Imanaga has added excitement to the Cy Young Award races.

However, an underlying concern arises from the lack of a smooth transition between generations of starting pitchers. The list of top starters over the past seven seasons reveals that only a handful of them made their debuts within the last 10 years, indicating a dearth of young talent reaching the highest level. Promising pitchers have been plagued by injuries and other setbacks, reflecting the relentless pursuit of velocity as a contributing factor in the decline of pitching vitality.

Gerrit Cole's return offers hope for a brighter future, as he stands as the only one among the wounded aces who is not returning from surgery. Being the most consistently great pitcher of the last six full seasons, Cole's strong performance in his minor league rehab outings suggests a potential return to form. However, concerns linger over the slight drop in his fastball velocity.

The Yankees' fate may heavily depend on Cole's ability to regain his dominance on the mound. The team's pitching staff has managed well in his absence, but signs of struggle have recently emerged. Young prospects like Luis Gil, who is approaching a career-high in innings pitched, and Marcus Stroman, who has more walks than strikeouts in June, raise some red flags.

As the 2024 season unfolds, the landscape of starting pitching continues to evolve. The era of legendary aces such as Greg Maddux, Roger Clemens, and Randy Johnson feels like a distant memory, with the likes of Cole, Scherzer, deGrom, and Verlander representing the last stand of the ace pitcher.

Whether Cole can lead the charge and revive the glory of elite starting pitchers or if the shifting dynamics of the game signal a new reality, only time will tell. But for now, the focus remains on the uncertainties faced by aces and the resilience of starting pitching as a whole.

Sources:
Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant