House Speaker Mike Johnson is feeling the pressure to make a decision on Ukraine aid as lawmakers prepare to return to Washington next week. However, the Louisiana Republican is grappling with the dual challenges of his narrow majority and the potential threat to his speakership. Sources reveal that Johnson has been exploring various options during the two-week recess, engaging in outreach to members to gauge their perspectives.

While a significant number of conservatives oppose providing further aid to Ukraine, other prominent Republicans, including Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell, emphasize the importance of assisting Ukraine in its fight against Russia. Johnson has expressed his aversion to simply passing the Senate's $95 billion aid package, which supports Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. Instead, he and his conference are seeking to include additional provisions, such as the REPO act sponsored by Republican Rep. Mike McCaul. This bill aims to seize Russian assets and utilize the funds to aid Ukraine in its recovery and rebuilding efforts.

One option Johnson has floated is structuring aid to Ukraine as a loan, similar to what was done in 2022 to expedite the transfer of weapons to the country. However, these options still lack specific details and pose potential challenges for the speaker. Some conservatives have suggested they might be comfortable with aid to Ukraine if it were offset or structured as a loan. Others adamantly reject such a plan, warning that Johnson's mere attempt to bring it to the floor could jeopardize his speakership.

Johnson is also confronted with the difficulty of finding a bill that can garner enough votes in the House. Given conservative opposition and their slim margin, he may need to bring any Ukraine aid bill to the floor under a suspension of the rules, requiring a two-thirds majority. Moreover, Johnson is expected to rely on the support of a significant number of Democrats to pass the package. However, some progressives have indicated their reluctance to vote for additional aid to Israel, adding another layer of complexity.

Sources familiar with the matter suggest that splitting the aid package into separate votes for Israel and Ukraine might overcome this hurdle. This strategy could drive up Democratic support for Ukraine aid while allowing Republicans to vote for additional aid to Israel. Nonetheless, Johnson will face mounting pressure from defense hawks upon his return, as they have granted him time to tackle numerous spending deadlines but now anticipate swift action.

Representative Brian Fitzpatrick, a Republican from Pennsylvania, has introduced his own foreign assistance package using a discharge petition, a rarely utilized tactic that compels a bill to the floor with signatures from 218 House members. While leadership has expressed skepticism about using this petition to secure Ukraine aid, Fitzpatrick's bill allows for a one-time substitution, potentially enabling the inclusion of any bill and passing it with a 218-vote threshold.

Johnson has also raised the idea of easing natural gas exports, but it remains uncertain whether this maneuver would appease conservative opposition to Ukraine aid. Additionally, it could risk losing support from Democrats. The Democratic party remains committed to providing additional aid to Ukraine but is awaiting a clear plan from the speaker before committing fully. Last week, the White House hinted openness to structuring Ukraine aid as a loan if that is the route pursued by the House.

Democrats are also keen on ensuring that humanitarian aid to Gaza is included, a provision already present in the Senate's bill. As the deadline approaches, Johnson finds himself at the center of a delicate balancing act, needing to navigate the desires of conservatives and Democrats alike while preserving his position as House Speaker.