Gower Street Analytics Raises Global Box Office Projection for 2024 to $32.3B

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07/04/2024 19h11

Title: Gower Street Analytics Raises Global Box Office Projection for 2024 to $32.3B

London-based firm Gower Street Analytics has revised its global box office projection for 2024, increasing it to $32.3 billion. This represents a 2.5% increase from their previous estimate of $31.5 billion for the year. However, despite the upward revision, the new projection still reflects a 5% decrease compared to 2023.

The revised estimate comes after a stronger than anticipated first quarter at the international box office. Gower Street Analytics revealed that actuals for Q1 exceeded their projections domestically and in China by 1%. In overseas markets excluding China, the figures surpassed previous estimates by an impressive 11%.

Exchange rate fluctuations between December and now have impacted the overall increase, as they essentially negated a significant portion of the gains seen in international markets. Gower Street Analytics stated that if not for these fluctuations, the increase in the projection would have been even higher.

The updated 2024 estimate is notably 18% behind an average of the last three years before the pandemic, which include 2017 to 2019. This indicates the ongoing impact the pandemic has had on the global box office.

Additionally, there have been some changes to the 2024 release calendar since Gower Street Analytics' initial projection in December. Notable additions include Disney's "Moana 2" and Universal's "Abigail and The Wild Robot". Interestingly, these films are already generating buzz as they are being promoted on elevator doors at Caesars Palace, where CinemaCon is set to begin tomorrow in Las Vegas.

In terms of regional projections, the domestic box office is expected to grow by $200 million compared to the earlier projection, reaching an estimated full-year total of $8.2 billion. Internationally, Gower Street Analytics has increased its estimate by $550 million, projecting a total of $16.2 billion (excluding China). The projection for the Chinese box office remains relatively flat at $7.9 billion, but still represents a year-on-year gain.

Overall, the revised projection by Gower Street Analytics reflects a cautiously optimistic outlook for the global box office in 2024. The impact of exchange rate fluctuations and the ongoing effects of the pandemic continue to shape the industry's recovery, but the addition of exciting titles to the release calendar provides a glimmer of hope for moviegoers and industry professionals alike.

The views expressed in this article do not reflect the opinion of ICARO, or any of its affiliates.

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