Gold Rally Stalls as Treasury Yields Stabilize and Dollar Strengthens; Miner Stocks Suffer Declines
ICARO Media Group
In a turn of events, the recent surge in gold prices witnessed since August 20, 2024, has lost steam as U.S. Treasury yields stabilize and the dollar rebounds. This halt has led to a dip in gold miners' stocks, with the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) and VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) both experiencing a 2.5% decline on Wednesday.
Despite the momentum that had been building in gold's rally, the precious metal has been unable to reach new record highs since its peak in late August. The stabilization of U.S. Treasury yields and the resurgence of the dollar have played a significant role in this development. On Wednesday, gold traded at $2,505 per ounce, marking a 0.8% decline for the day and putting an end to a three-session winning streak.
Market analysts attribute gold's recent struggles to the fading surge in the dollar, which had been driven by positive catalysts. As the dollar's strength wanes, traders have taken the opportunity to secure profits and reduce their exposure to gold.
Rate-cut expectations, a key factor influencing the precious metal's performance, have shown little improvement. Speculators have fully priced in a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, but they now assign a 65% probability to a smaller 25-basis-point reduction, compared to a 35% chance for a larger 50-basis-point cut, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
While geopolitical tensions in the Middle East historically favor safe-haven assets like gold, recent exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah did not escalate into a broader conflict. As tensions de-escalated, the appeal of gold as a safe-haven investment diminished further.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) experienced a rise of 0.4% on Wednesday, bouncing back from its lowest levels since July 2023, which were recorded on Tuesday.
The dip in gold prices has had a more pronounced impact on gold mining stocks, leading to significant declines. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) and VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) both experienced a 2.5% decline on Wednesday, in line with the pullback in gold prices.
As traders closely monitor U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar's performance, the future direction of gold remains uncertain. Market participants will be closely watching for any developments that could re-ignite the precious metal's rally or further dampen its appeal.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice.