### Study Confirms Slowing Gains in Human Life Expectancy

**New analysis supports 1990 predictions on human longevity**

Gerontologist Jay Olshansky and his colleagues have long faced skepticism regarding their forecasts on human lifespan. In 1990, they projected that children born at the time would, on average, live to 85 years, with only a small fraction—between 1% and 5%—reaching the age of 100. Contrary to more optimistic predictions that half of newborns would celebrate their centenarian milestone, Olshansky's more conservative outlook is gaining credibility.

"We predicted that increases in life expectancy would decelerate and that advancements in medical interventions would offer diminishing returns," said Olshansky, a professor at the University of Illinois at Chicago's School of Public Health.

Thirty-four years later, data supports his hypothesis. An analysis published in the journal *Nature Aging* examined lifespan statistics from ten countries. The study revealed that female children born in 2019 in these nations have just a 5.1% chance of living to 100, while males have an even slimmer probability at 1.8%.

Olshansky stresses the importance of interpreting these findings correctly. "Life expectancy is still increasing, but at a slower pace compared to previous decades," he clarified.

The renowned gerontologist also addressed popular beliefs that human lifespans could soon extend to 120 or even 150 years. He dismissed these figures as speculative and unsupported by empirical evidence. As Olshansky explained, aging results from the gradual degradation of cells and tissues, a biological reality that current science cannot halt.

Obesity and related conditions like type 2 diabetes, which have proliferated over the past 30 years, were also discussed. While modern medicine has developed effective treatments to combat these diseases, their prevalence has yet to significantly impact life expectancy figures. "We've effectively created 'manufactured time' through medical advancements, allowing more people to reach their 70s, 80s, and beyond," Olshansky explained.

Olshansky is optimistic about ongoing research in geroscience, which investigates methods to slow biological aging. Although recent success in animal models offers hope for future breakthroughs, translating these findings to human longevity remains uncertain. "While it's promising, we don't yet know how much it will extend human life expectancy," he cautioned.