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ESPN has unveiled the initial 2025 rankings for its Football Power Index (FPI), offering a glimpse into what the upcoming season might hold for Big 12 rivals BYU and Utah. The FPI serves as a predictive measure to forecast team performances based on simulations, historical results, and remaining schedules.

Heading into their second year in the Big 12, BYU and Utah find themselves with contrasting expectations. Notably, BYU comes into the season with an FPI score of 8.4, positioning them at No. 29 nationally and third within the conference. The FPI projects the Cougars to secure 8.0 wins, with a significant 89.2% likelihood of becoming bowl eligible. Last season, BYU defied the odds by finishing 11-2 despite being projected for just 4.8 wins and a 35.4% chance of bowl eligibility. Their strong performance has led to impressive projections: a 10.4% chance of winning the Big 12, a 12.6% chance of making the College Football Playoff, and marginal national championship odds at 0.1%.

Nevertheless, the Cougars have a relatively manageable schedule, ranked as the 74th toughest nationally and second-easiest within the Big 12. They avoid facing the top two conference contenders in the FPI—Kansas State and Arizona State—making their path potentially smoother. Their highest-ranked opponents in the Big 12 include TCU at No. 32 and Texas Tech at No. 35, games that could be pivotal in determining their season's success.

In contrast, Utah's outlook appears less optimistic. The Utes have an FPI score of 4.8, ranking them at No. 46 nationally and 10th in the Big 12. They are projected for 6.4 wins, with a 67.3% probability of achieving bowl eligibility. The previous season saw Utah struggling, ending with a 5-7 record despite a projection of 7.8 wins and an 85.4% chance of bowl eligibility. Their odds of winning the Big 12 stand at 3.1%, with a 3.7% chance of making the College Football Playoff and virtually no chance of clinching the national championship.

Both teams' fortunes have shifted dramatically compared to a year ago. While BYU exceeded expectations, Utah has been tasked with rebounding from its first losing season since 2014. As the season progresses, these early projections will be updated, offering an evolving picture of how both teams might fare in their Big 12 campaigns.