An imminent surge in global temperatures is predicted for 2024 as a result of the ongoing El Niño climate event. Scientists have revealed that regions spanning from the Amazon to Alaska are expected to face unprecedented heat, with coastal areas of India, the Philippines, and the Caribbean also likely to experience extreme temperatures. According to a recent analysis, there is a 90% likelihood that the global temperature over the first half of 2024 will set a new record due to the intensifying impact of El Niño.

Dr. Ning Jiang, along with other scientists at the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, warned that the forthcoming warmth poses significant risks, including intense heatwaves, tropical cyclones, and year-round marine heatwaves that could exacerbate wildfires and other adverse effects in vulnerable regions such as Alaska and the Amazon basin. Coastal areas, in particular, face heightened threats due to their ability to retain heat for prolonged periods, making them susceptible to prolonged hot conditions.

In the past year, El Niño has significantly amplified global surface temperatures, resulting in 2023 being recorded as the hottest year by a large margin. The study, published in Scientific Reports, forecasted record-breaking temperatures in the Amazon, raising concerns over an increased risk of wildfires. Severe fires and drought already impacted the region in late 2023, with emissions from fires setting new records.

Prof. Adam Scaife from the Met Office and the University of Exeter underscored the importance of utilizing observed temperature records and El Niño effects to anticipate the climate trends of 2024. The analysis points out areas like Africa and Greenland as regions likely to experience excess heat this year, although with historical data limitations making assessments challenging in these locations.

As the Earth's climate swings between El Niño and La Niña cycles, the impact of human-induced global heating intensifies. The rise in carbon dioxide levels from fossil fuels in the atmosphere contributes to the underlying trend of warming. With El Niño projected to peak between November and January, regions worldwide must prepare for the mounting challenges posed by the impending record-breaking temperatures and associated climate crises in the upcoming year.